Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz won’t return to normal until August or later, according to Kalshi traders

Key Points

Traders think there’s a 59% chance traffic returns to normal by September 1. Odds that happens by August are hovering around 50%.
Kalshi defines normal traffic flows on the contract as the 7-day moving average of transit through the strait crossing 60 based on data from IMF PortWatch.

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