Retailers are on a hiring spree. But consumers are sending warning signs

Retailers are ramping up hiring this year, defying economic concerns as consumers keep shopping.

The retail trades added nearly 22,000 jobs in April, accounting for almost one-fifth of total job growth, according to preliminary federal data released Friday. Nearly 15.5 million employees now hold retail industry jobs, the most since July 2024.

Consumers have kept their wallets open in the face of war in Iran, higher gasoline prices, faster inflation and President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Lately, a solid consumer has left retailers confident enough to hire more workers to stock shelves or staff cash registers.

“This still shows how resilient spending has been, even amid a lot of the uncertainty,” said Cory Stahle, senior economist at job search platform Indeed. “It’s an encouraging sign for the industry and for the economy more broadly.”

Rising confidence

Warehouse clubs and supercenters were among the retailers driving sector hiring in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Department stores, and sellers of electronics and appliances, saw payrolls shrink.

The labor market gained 38,000 courier and messenger jobs in April, representing roughly a third of all positions added in the month. That partly compensated for jobs lost earlier this year due to weather, according to Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

Growth in retail and transportation helped total job growth come in far ahead of economists’ expectations for April.

Retailers also posted their highest volume of monthly job openings since 2023 in March, a separate report of preliminary government data found. The sector’s number of openings spiked 48% from the same month a year ago. Economy wide, the total number of listings fell over the same period.

Retail’s hiring surge reflects growing optimism that consumers will keep spending in the face of economic shocks, Stahle said. It’s a reversal from 2025, when companies worried that Trump’s tariffs would create cost pressures and lead to a pullback in demand, he said.

There were “a lot of employers holding their breath last year,” Stahle said. “Now, these employers can feel maybe a little more confident as they step forward.”

Red flags

But while consumers appear ready to keep spending for now, warnings signs are flashing.

Whirlpool on Wednesday cited a “recession-level industry decline” in the U.S. as the Iran War battered consumer confidence. A day later, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told analysts that consumer spending “may be getting a little bit worse.”

The University of Michigan on Friday reported another record low consumer sentiment reading. Sentiment was hurt by the rising price of gas caused by the war, according to survey director Joanne Hsu.

The price of gasoline at multiyear highs could push drivers to curtail discretionary spending, Stahle said. If that happens, the economist warned that the retail sector might undo some of its recent labor force expansion to account for sliding demand.

“We’re seeing some potential growth,” Stahle said. “But the Iran War and a lot of these other things are looming. And that is something that very much could impact these industries in the months ahead.”