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2024 was a strong year for aeolian energy in Germany, with permit awards for onshore wind turbines accelerating, according to industry data — but the upcoming Feb. 23 election means the sector now faces uncertainty, amid vocal skepticism from the two parties leading in the polls.
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is polling in first place with around 30% of support alongside its affiliate party the CSU, has described wind power as a “transitional technology.” Speaking to public broadcaster ZDF late last year, he said he hoped “ugly” wind turbines could be dismantled eventually, “because they do not fit into the landscape.”
The far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland, which is second in national polls and expected to secure around 20% of votes, took the rhetoric even further. The party’s chancellor candidate Alice Weidel has threatened to tear down all wind turbines, which she reportedly labeled as “windmills of shame.” The AfD has called climate change into question and has frequently dismissed actions taken to tackle the environmental crisis.
Wind power, a form of renewable energy used to generate electricity, is considered important in the transition away from fossil fuels.
Wolf-Peter Schill, an energy economist at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), said some of the “wind power-bashing” during the election campaign has been “absurd” at times, particularly from the AfD.
“The AfD is, in many respects, a nightmare — also in terms of their wind power takes, but I think it is not super relevant as they will not be in power,” Schill told CNBC over video call.
Despite the AfD polling in second place, all other major parties in Germany have so far committed to not entering a coalition government with them, meaning they will likely form part of the opposition after the election.
“What the CDU, the conservative party, does is much more relevant, at least for the next government,” Schill noted.
Germany’s wind energy expansion
Schill cited a recent report from the German Wind Energy Association and engineering foundation VDMA Power Systems, which said the country achieved a historic milestone for onshore wind energy in 2024.
Europe’s largest economy licensed more than 2,400 onshore wind turbines last year, the report said, representing a combined capacity of more than 14 gigawatts. Contracts awarded for onshore wind turbines also rose to a record high, it added.
Dennis Rendschmidt, managing director of VDMA Power Systems, told CNBC that the record figures highlighted the effectiveness of legal changes and political measures implemented in recent years. They also signaled a new dynamic for the sector, he said.
“This momentum needs to be kept up by a new federal government,” Rendschmidt added, according to a CNBC translation of emailed comments. The expansion of wind energy must continue without restrictions, he said, as that would lead to lower energy costs, create jobs, secure energy supply and reduce dependence on energy imports.
DIW Berlin’s Schill sees few potential hurdles.
“All the conditions are really set for future growth,” he said, noting that the only obstacles could emerge if the incoming government slows down the pace of expansion, for either ideological reasons or a lack of understanding of the role wind power will have in energy systems.
Giles Dickson, CEO of industry trade group WindEurope, told CNBC that in the likely scenario of a CDU-led government, there should only be a little concern for the sector.
“If you’re looking at a CDU-led government, with either the [Social Democratic Party] or the Greens in coalition, or both, then that to us does not represent storm clouds at all,” he said.
The party is not neglectful when it comes to climate change and at least does not strongly oppose wind energy, Andreas Reuter, managing director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems (IWES), told CNBC when elaborating on the position of the likely leader of Germany’s new coalition, the CDU/CSU.
Although the CDU was previously critical of wind turbines, Reuter said the party would likely deem them “acceptable” for now, as they are broadly reliable and produce cheap energy.
Renewable energy challenges
While the change in government may not mean that trouble for German wind energy is imminent, the new ruling coalition will face challenges when it comes to renewables and wind power.
That includes updates to Germany’s Renewable Energy Sources Act, a German law designed to ensure the country can produce 80% of its electricity from renewable sources by the end of the decade, Dickson pointed out.
Solar and wind energy are key for these ambitions, as Germany’s efforts towards winning energy from nuclear fusion — which is widely deemed a highly sustainable power source — are still in the research and planning stage. Germany shut off its last remaining traditional nuclear power plants in 2023.
The new government will have to work on a new iteration of the law, he said, suggesting that industry bodies will need to keep a close eye on those developments and seek close dialogue with the government to shape changes.
The goals Germany currently has for growing its renewable energy production and usage are another area that will involve adjustments. Some of these targets are already “completely unrealistic,” IWES’ Reuter said.
That means the government will have to cut its targets or they would miss them each year, he said, noting that the current plans were “aggressive” — but that this was helpful in showing that renewables were a priority and to encourage people to think big and create a positive environment around the issue.
“On the other hand, we still have a gap, which is getting bigger and bigger the closer we get to 2030 and the question is, how do we want to fill the gap? When are we going to accept that we’re not going to meet these targets? And this will be again, interesting discussions for the next government,” he said.
