What Democrats are — and aren’t — getting in the deal that could end the government shutdown

Senate Democrats are poised to help Republicans pass a bill that could lead to the end of the government shutdown. But the deal they’re agreeing to doesn’t directly address what was once Democrats’ key demand: an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are due to expire by year’s end.

The Senate took a major step to that end on Sunday night, when eight Democrats in the narrowly divided chamber voted for a procedural motion that paves the way for approval of a negotiated funding bill.

Those eight Democrats, who broke with party leadership, were just enough for the measure to hit the 60-vote threshold required to overcome the filibuster. That rule has prevented Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the Senate, from reopening the government on their own.

The procedural vote’s passage broke a nearly six-week logjam in which most Senate Democrats repeatedly shot down a Republican-backed bill that would temporarily resume government funding at current levels.

Democrats had demanded that any funding bill must include significant additional spending on health care protections and other key measures.

Most notably, they fought for a permanent extension of enhanced tax credits under the ACA, which were introduced during the Biden administration and are set to expire by year’s end. If those subsidies lapse, millions of Americans could either lose their health insurance or see their premiums rise significantly.

Democrats also sought to reverse some recent cuts to Medicaid and other health programs. And they aimed to address the Trump administration’s freezing of congressionally approved federal funds, which Democrats say is illegal.

The text of the funding deal that helped spur Sunday’s breakthrough leaves many of those priorities unaddressed. The 31-page bill makes no mention of the expiring Obamacare tax credits.

Instead, the agreement includes a guarantee from Republican leadership that the Senate will vote on a health care bill drafted by Democrats before the second week of December.

“That is a big step, because otherwise there’s no way for the minority to get a bill onto the floor of the U.S. Senate,” Sen. Angus King of Maine, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, said Sunday night after helping to broker the deal.

Even if a bill to extend the tax credits passes the Senate, it would have to be taken up and passed through the GOP-led House, and then signed by President Donald Trump. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has not promised to bring such a bill to a vote in his chamber.

The deal currently moving through the Senate also reportedly does not challenge Trump’s ability to make rescissions of congressionally appropriated funds.

But it does include a “minibus” that funds three of the 12 annual appropriations bills, and it would resume funding for the rest of the government through Jan. 30.

That full-year funding would cover the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP or food stamps, sources familiar with the deal told NBC News. The Trump administration has said that full SNAP benefits cannot be paid during the shutdown, prompting ongoing lawsuits from Democratic state leaders.

The deal would also reverse the Trump administration’s shutdown-related “reductions in force” or layoffs of federal workers, and ensure backpay for the paychecks they missed during the shutdown.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., opposed the deal.

“This health care crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home, that I cannot in good faith support this [continuing resolution] that fails to address the health care crisis,” he said Sunday.

Distrustful Democrats had previously rejected Republicans’ insistence that any negotiations on the Obamacare subsidies could only come once the government was reopened.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has also panned the Senate deal, and vowed to fight it if it comes to his chamber.

But King, who negotiated the Sunday compromise along with Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, maintained that it was futile to keep the painful shutdown going in hopes of getting Republicans to bend on health care.

“The question was, ‘Does the shutdown further the goal of achieving some needed support for the extension of the tax credits?’ Our judgment was that it will not produce that result. And the evidence for that is almost seven weeks of fruitless attempts to make that happen,” he told the press Sunday night.

The major shift came just days after Democratic candidates trounced Republicans up and down the ballot in the first elections since Trump returned to the White House.

Additionally, numerous polls have show more Americans pinning their blame for the shutdown on Trump and Republicans, rather than Democrats. Surveys have also shown most Americans supported Democrats’ initial main demand of extending the health care subsidies.

But the stalemate dragged on, taking an increasingly severe toll on major industries and key federal services as many government workers remain furloughed or required to work without pay.

Thinned-out staffing among air traffic controllers has caused mounting flight delays and cancellations at dozens of major airports across the country.

The political fallout from the Senate Democrats’ shutdown shift remains to be seen. Critics were quick to accuse the Democratic defectors of folding despite holding an arguably strong position on the shutdown. But defenders of the move say it could benefit Democrats ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

“With the government reopening shortly, Senate Republicans must finally come to the table — or, make no mistake, Americans will remember who stood in the way,” Shaheen said in a statement.

“If they don’t fix this, here’s my prediction. They’re going to look at last Tuesday’s election as a good night compared to what they’re going to see next year,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said Monday morning.

— CNBC’s Emily Wilkins contributed to this report.