Trump’s war predictions, Pershing Square files for IPO, Anthropic’s lawsuit and more in Morning Squawk

Wall Street witnessed a stunning midday recovery yesterday after President Donald Trump indicated the U.S.-Iran war could be over soon. Trump told a CBS News reporter on Monday that “the war is very complete, pretty much” and later said during a press conference that the conflict would end “very soon.”

Here’s what to know:

Breaking news this morning: Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is taking his hedge fund to the New York Stock Exchange. Ackman’s Pershing Square today filed to list under the ticker symbol “PS.”

As CNBC’s Yun Li reports, the listing will allow public investors to take a stake in Ackman’s investing platform. It will be a dual listing, meaning investors can buy either Pershing Square’s common shares or shares of its investment vehicle, which will trade under the ticker “PSUS.”

Pershing Square said it has $2.8 billion worth of secured commitments heading into the offering, coming from groups such as family offices, pension funds and high-net-worth individuals.

The rising price of oil and last week’s weak jobs report are leading some economists to warn that the U.S. could end up with high inflation and slow growth — otherwise known as stagflation.

Fears of U.S. stagflation similarly rose after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and again when Trump announced tariffs last year. But both cases failed to materialize into a true stagflationary environment like that of the 1970s.

Meanwhile, prediction markets bettors are increasingly pricing in a recession. Odds of a U.S. recession jumped above 34% on Kalshi yesterday after sitting below 25% late last week.

Anthropic is taking the federal government to court. In a lawsuit filed yesterday, Anthropic said the Pentagon’s recent move to blacklist the AI company is “unprecedented and unlawful” and “irreparably” harms the startup.

The lawsuit is the latest update in the dramatic stand-off between Anthropic and the Trump administration. Anthropic went from being the federal government’s AI provider of choice to being designated a “supply chain risk” — a label typically used for foreign adversaries — after it disagreed with the Pentagon’s usage demands.

The Trump administration’s move concerned defense experts, who say Anthropic’s blacklisting risks setting a troubling precedent and writing off a key U.S.-based AI vendor.

Stellantis is turning to some unexpected automotive suppliers to launch its newest hybrid SUVs.

As CNBC’s Michael Wayland reports, the first-ever hybrid Jeep SUV for North America contains a system from Toyota-backed Blue Nexus. Its forthcoming extended-range electric vehicles, meanwhile, will use technology from Bosch — the world’s largest auto supplier.

Automakers often use components from suppliers in their vehicles. What’s not as common is using supplier components for main systems and technologies, especially when those components come from a competitor like Toyota.

— CNBC’s Dan Mangan, Spencer Kimball, Sean Conlon, Jeff Cox, Ashley Capoot, Jonathan Vanian, Eamon Javers, Michael Wayland and Laya Neelakandan contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.