Trump’s shake-up of the old world order sends shockwaves through Europe

As 2026 kicks off with several unexpected geopolitical earthquakes, Europe looks woefully unprepared to deal with the upending of old rules — and the new world order — being created by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Less than a week into the new year and not only has the U.S. deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and threatened Colombia, Iran, Cuba and Mexico, but has also turned its sights on taking over Danish territory Greenland, potentially using military force, and threatening the very fabric and future of NATO.

Then there’s Ukraine, with European leaders’ efforts this week to cement security guarantees in a potential peace deal to end the war looking like small fry as other potential territorial takeovers garner global attention.

Largely seen as the “Old World” by the rest of the globe, Europe appears to have fallen far behind other power blocs on a number of levels, with its economy in the slow lane and its geopolitical isolation — and apparent impotence — in stark contrast with bullish regional superpowers like the U.S., Russia, and China.

It’s a dangerous moment for Europe and the existing international order, analysts say, as the established rules-based international order is torn up.

“What happened in Venezuela and now talk about Greenland, Cuba or Colombia, we are really into getting into uncharted territory, and we have to be really extremely careful,” Wang Huiyao, founder and president at the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, told CNBC Wednesday.

“The international community has to work together now and probably stop this kind of unilateral approach. It’s a wake-up call for the European countries so closely allied with the U.S. who have suddenly realized now that its fundamental basis has been eroded and has been really challenged.”

There’s no doubt that Europe knows the trouble it’s in as it confronts both the dangers of ongoing war in Ukraine, and an elusive peace deal, as well as the real possibility of a confrontation with the U.S. over Greenland, which belongs to EU and NATO member Denmark.

European leaders met on Tuesday to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, but also issued a statement pushing back against any American territorial ambitions over the Arctic island, insisting: “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”

A flurry of fraught diplomacy ensued on Wednesday morning, with France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stating that he had spoken to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The French politician said Rubio had “ruled out the possibility of what happened in Venezuela happening in Greenland.”

Rubio reportedly told lawmakers at a closed briefing on Capitol Hill on Monday that the Trump administration did not plan to invade Greenland, but aimed to buy it from Denmark, the Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday.

Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNBC on Tuesday that the administration was considering “a range of options” in order to acquire Greenland — including “utilizing the U.S. Military.” 

Greenland and Denmark have requested a meeting with Rubio to discuss the U.S.’ intentions. On Monday, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that “if the U.S. chooses to attack another NATO country, everything will stop.”

It’s not the first time that the transatlantic partnership has looked shaky under Trump’s leadership, with the president barely containing his disdain for Europe’s perceived shortfalls in recent years, particularly when it comes to defense spending, investment, and economic prowess.

In December, the U.S. warned in its new national security strategy (NSS) that the region faced oblivion. Trump then called Europe’s leaders “weak” and said the region was “decaying.”

European officials responded to Trump’s comments with irritation, but the uncomfortable question was whether the U.S. had a point.

In its NSS, the U.S. listed Europe’s waning economy, migration policies, and “loss of national identities and self-confidence” as reasons to worry for the continent. It then warned that European countries faced “civilizational erasure” and questioned whether they can “remain reliable allies.”

Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC that Washington was essentially telling Europe not only what it already knew, but what it was already trying to fix.

“Civilizational erasure’ sounds offensive, but many European leaders – in France, Germany, Italy – have been raising similar concerns for years. In fact, EU migration policy has tightened considerably since [former Chancellor Angela] Merkel’s open-door approach,” he told CNBC.

“The key difference is that Europeans want to address these and other challenges by making Europe stronger, not by tearing it apart,” Bremmer said.

“European leaders see this for what it is,” he added.

“If Washington is no longer aligned with Europe on values Europeans consider essential, then the United States can no longer be counted on as an ally. That’s an existential crisis for the transatlantic alliance … What the Europeans are prepared to do about it is another matter entirely.”