As President Donald Trump tiptoed away this week from the idea that he might try to win a third term, he opened the door to a fresh round of intrigue: Whom does he see as his successor?
In practically the same breath in an interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” Trump suggested national security adviser and Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance — in that order — as potential candidates.
“You look at Marco, you look at JD Vance, who’s fantastic,” Trump replied when Kristen Welker asked him what gives him confidence that his MAGA movement will continue once he’s out of office. “You look at — I could name 10, 15, 20 people right now just sitting here.”
That he mentioned Rubio at all struck a senior White House aide as notable, given that it was the first time Trump had so publicly identified him as a favorable prospect. And the development, while not exactly surprising to anyone aware of Rubio’s long-held White House ambitions, quickly injected the elements of competition and rivalry that Trump has long enjoyed fostering among those who work for him.
Expectations of such a clash are premature and overblown, those close to both Rubio and Vance told NBC News. They are ideological allies and have become good friends.
“They’ve got a really good personal and professional relationship, so if they’re both running, I have no doubt there will be a [conversation] about it beforehand,” said a person familiar with their relationship, who, like others interviewed for this article, was granted anonymity to offer candid insights about a politically sensitive topic.
Three people in Rubio’s orbit who spoke with NBC News, cognizant of Vance’s higher rank in the line of succession and of polling that reinforces his higher standing among Republican voters, see Vance as having right of first refusal on the Republican nomination in 2028.
Among Vance’s allies, too, there’s no ill will. A person close to Vance emphasized that the two remain extremely close and didn’t see a scenario in which Vance and Rubio would run against each other for president in 2028 at this point.
But Rubio is, without question, ascending in Trump world. His rise was punctuated last week when Trump appointed him as his interim national security adviser. Rubio is the first person to hold both roles at the same time since Henry Kissinger in the mid-1970s.
While internally there has long been an overwhelming sentiment that Vance will be the first in line to carry on Trump’s political legacy, even some White House advisers are starting to see him and Rubio on an equal playing field in Trump’s estimation.
“President Trump sees them as both very loyal and very talented, I think that’s very fair to say,” a senior Trump adviser said.
The expanded portfolio is a signal that Rubio, according to four sources who have long advised him, is building a substantial footing that can position him well as the heir apparent to Trump — if Vance stumbles over the next three years.
“You would still have to give the advantage to Vance because he is the sitting vice president,” a Rubio ally said of the hypothetical 2028 showdown. “But everyone in Rubio’s orbit is feeling really good about how things are playing out. If for any reason Vance isn’t the guy or the electorate is seeking an alternative, there is no question that Rubio is in the pole position for that.”
“He is a guy who can speak MAGA but can also gather the confidence of your more traditional Republican,” this person added.
Another longtime Rubio ally allowed that “Vance is the guy for now, but as we have seen, for now isn’t forever.”
“There is a lot of time,” this person added. “Important to remember it’s early, but Rubio wears many hats now. That’s not by mistake.”
In the meantime, neither Rubio nor Vance is shy about asserting his strengths in meetings with Trump. Just days before the “Meet the Press” shoutouts, Rubio sat next to Trump at an hourslong Cabinet meeting wearing a matching blue suit and red tie. At one point, Rubio said he had uncovered that a State Department office built a dossier on someone else seated at the table, identifying the person “as purveyors of disinformation,” which he said would soon be turned over.
“Was it me or Elon?” Vance interrupted, referring to Trump adviser Elon Musk and drawing laughs with what amounted to a flex of his “deep state” enmity.
Trump’s indulgence in succession talk barely 100 days into his second administration follows his indulgence of scenarios in which he would circumvent the Constitution to serve a third term. The latter has had a freezing effect on the GOP’s 2028 field, with no prospective candidate daring to get too far ahead of him.
But Trump backed away from the third-term talk in the “Meet the Press” interview, suggesting he would be comfortable going into the history books as an “eight-year president.”
“So many people want me to do it. I have never had requests so strong as that,” Trump said, referring to tactics that could circumvent the Constitution. “But it’s something that, to the best of my knowledge, you’re not allowed to do.”
Early polls taking stock of a potential 2028 Republican primary field show Vance with a wide plurality, assuming Trump doesn’t try to run again, and Rubio in the single digits. A recent Economist/YouGov survey found that 43% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who responded picked Vance as their “ideal” GOP nominee, followed by Donald Trump Jr. at 11%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 8% and Rubio at 4%.
Critics have for years tried to square the Rubio of the 2016 campaign — in which he ran as an establishment-friendly candidate known for his openness to immigration reform — with the Rubio they now see as embracing a MAGA doctrine. But those close to him say any so-called transformation wasn’t some overnight phenomenon that took place once he was picked to be secretary of state.
“He showed the one thing Trump values above any other quality,” said a longtime Republican operative who has previously supported Rubio — “loyalty to Trump while going out preaching the gospel of Trump.”
In the years leading up to Trump’s second presidential bid, Rubio gravitated toward the school of right-wing thought that has risen in the party — attending National Conservatism conferences popular with then-colleagues like Vance and Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., who are in alignment on several key policy areas in which Trump has led the charge in shifting GOP orthodoxy.
“I think my instincts have always been where they are now,” Rubio told NBC News in a 2021 interview. “As you’re exposed to new facts, new realities, and as the world changes, so, too, does your public policy response to it.”
Vance and Rubio became friends when they served together in the Senate. They viewed each other as fellow converts to Trump’s movement and as ideological peers on issues that Trump had reoriented Republicans around, like trade. A person close to Rubio said he and Vance are close and “were very much swimming in the same policy circles.”
Also key to Rubio’s ascension in Trump’s inner circle has been how much face time he has spent around Trump both in the White House and at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Four senior administration officials told NBC News that Rubio spends as much time as he can at the White House to be close to Trump, while a person close to him said he has become a regular at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump spends most weekends.
To the extent that Vance and Rubio were rivals in Trump’s running mate search last year, there was limited sniping between their teams and a mutual understanding that both were more in sync with Trumpism than then-North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, another finalist for the job.
Their friendship has tightened in the Trump administration. Each has worked to cultivate and maintain relationships with tastemakers on the far right. Vance and Rubio both, for example, were among the guests at an inaugural ball hosted by Turning Point USA, the group led by influential far-right activist Charlie Kirk.
The vice presidency might offer Vance more built-in steppingstones to the Oval Office. Like Rubio, he has been able to travel the globe, gaining the type of experience that can bolster a White House bid.
Vance doesn’t have the same constraints that Rubio, as a diplomat, faces when it comes to moonlighting in politics and campaigns. His hand is already seen in Ohio’s race for governor, a key midterm contest next year that could elevate Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy. With Trump’s blessing, Vance is finance chair for the Republican National Committee — a position that will keep him connected to some of the party’s top donors between now and 2028.
And while Trump seemed to put Vance and Rubio on an equal 2028 plane in the “Meet the Press” interview and stopped short of anointing Vance as the favorite, he indicated that the nomination could be Vance’s to lose.
“Marco is great. There’s a lot of them that are great,” Trump said. “I also see tremendous unity. But certainly you would say that somebody’s the VP, if that person is outstanding, I guess that person would have an advantage.”