U.S. Treasury yields slipped on Monday in one of the final trading days of the year got underway.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by about 7 basis points at 4.547%, trading just below multimonth highs recorded last week. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.254% after dipping by about 7 basis points.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%.
Investors focused on the end of the year and quarter, and considered the outlook for the U.S. economy and the path ahead for monetary policy from the Federal Reserve in 2025.
The Fed indicated that fewer interest rate cuts were on the horizon when it met earlier this month. Policymakers will make their first rate decision of 2025 in late January. Long-term interest rates have risen in recent months, despite the Fed’s cuts, as traders dial back expectations for further central bank action next year.
“We believe the Fed rate-cutting cycle is near its end, as we expect only one additional rate cut next year. Fed and market expectations were for a longer and deeper rate-cut cycle, but our projections consistently saw fewer rate cuts as economic strength and stubborn inflation persisted,” Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a note to clients Monday.
Economic data released Monday was mixed. November’s pending home sales data rose to the highest level in a year, but the Chicago purchasing managers’ index came in at 36.9, below the 42.2 projected by economists, according to Dow Jones.
Data released last week showed that weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 21 fell slightly and came in below expectations, while continuing claims for the week ending Dec. 14 jumped to the highest level since November 2021.
Bond markets will close early Tuesday and remain closed Wednesday as New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day are observed.
