The U.S. is losing travelers. Here are the countries that stand to benefit

The United States stands to lose about $30 billion in international tourism this year, as the country’s political environment and strong dollar continue to deter foreign travelers from visiting.

In early 2025, the U.S. Travel Association projected foreign travel spending would rise to $200.8 billion this year.

However, noting a “sharp and widespread” drop in arrivals, the World Travel & Tourism Council in May projected international visitor spending would drop to $169 billion for the year.

The lost revenue is set to benefit other countries — notably Canada and Latin America — as travelers seek out other destinations or decide to stay within their own countries or regions.

In the first half of 2025, Canadian arrivals to the U.S. fell nearly 18% year on year, representing a drop of more than 1,750,000 visits, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.

Many Canadians are turning to domestic travel, which helped push the country’s July hotel occupancy rate to 77.6%, its highest level since 2019, according to real estate data provider CoStar. The “Canada Strong Pass” —  a summer tourism initiative marked as a celebration of strength and unity in the country — drove an increase in visits to Canada’s museums, historic sites and national parks, the government reported this week.

Other Canadians continue to venture south, flying over, rather than to, the United States, according to the research firm Tourism Economics.

“We are seeing more Canadians are headed to Mexico, Latin America and the Caribbean,” said Adam Sacks, the company’s president.

Data from Booking Holdings also shows Canadians are increasingly choosing Mexico as a travel destination, a representative told CNBC Travel.

Latin America is appealing to more travelers from Europe too, according to the consulting firm Accenture. The region, as well as the Caribbean, is attracting Europeans who are looking for alternatives to the U.S., a representative said.  

In an email to CNBC, a Booking Holdings representative said the company is seeing “new travel corridors” emerge as inbound travel to the U.S. drops, noting an increase among Europeans to travel within Europe and to Asia.

Western Europeans, in particular, are increasingly traveling within the region, as well as to the Middle East, added Tourism Economics’ Sacks.

More Asian travelers, too, are searching for trips to Europe and the Middle East this year, said Michael Dykes, Expedia Group’s vice president for market management in Asia-Pacific.

A CNBC survey of 6,000 Southeast Asian international travelers, performed by Milieu Insight, showed that among those reconsidering trips to the U.S., most said they plan to travel within Southeast Asia or East Asia, followed by Europe and Oceania.  

Singaporean traveler Rahul Jain told CNBC Travel that he’s already booked a trip to Australia this year, and now he’s considering going to the United Kingdom or France.

“Europe is still attractive to me,” he said. But, he added, the U.S. is “off my list.”

In the first half of 2025, the U.S. welcomed about 1 million fewer international visitors compared to the same period in 2024, according to government data.

But compared to 2019, it’s on track to see 13 million fewer international visitors by the year-end, said Sacks.

At the same time, travel arrivals are increasing to other countries.

“The countries forecast to witness the largest gain in international visits relative to 2019 are Spain, Saudi Arabia and Turkey,” he said, which are expected to receive 16.5 million, 14.5 million, and 14 million more travelers, respectively.

The United States’ share of global international travel fell from 8.4% in 1996 to 4.9% in 2024, as other markets developed and new markets entered the fray, said Sacks.

The U.S.’ share of cross-border travel dropped in the early 2000s, leveled off, then took another hit during President Donald Trump’s first term, according to data from Tourism Economics.

This year, it’s set to fall again, with the United States’ share of global international arrivals forecast to drop to 4.2%, said Sacks. And, it’s projected to remain at that level through the next decade, he said.

“The U.S. is losing share again in 2025,” said Sacks. “We don’t expect it to recover that share within our forecast horizon.”

Meanwhile, arrivals to other top tourism draws — including France, Greece, Mexico and Italy — are set to increase this year.

This shows “how dire this has been for the U.S. compared to competing destinations,” said Sacks.