In an aerial view, a container ship arrives at the Port of Oakland on August 1, 2025 in Oakland, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
The Trump administration’s latest escalation of the trade war with China has drawn several parallels to its origins back in 2018.
However, there is a significant difference: the degree to which U.S. companies looked to avoid rising tariffs by racing to bring in more and more products from China ahead of them.
When comparing the peak of frontloading that occurred in 2018 compared to 2025, U.S. shippers imported more than double the percentage of Chinese exports this year, according to data from ImportGenius.
To compare the differences, CNBC used data from ImportGenius that dates back to 2016 prior to the Trump trade war rhetoric.
In 2025, there have been three major frontloading events as a result of the changing tariffs.
Ahead of “Liberation Day,” importers began rushing in containers from China starting in January, followed by a slight decrease in February and March. A second smaller frontloading occurred between March and April. The peak in the pulling forward of freight from China to the U.S. came in between June to July, where exports soared by 49% after tariff rates were lowered to 34%.
In 2018, the height of freight loading came in the Fall: between the months of September and October where there was a 12.2% increase in containers, and between the months of October and November, there was an additional 22% increase.
But there are signs now that the level of exports from China is starting to drop, seen in key shipping data like ocean freight bookings and ocean container spot rates.
“The difference in exports from China to the U.S. between July and August of this year is a 40% drop,” said Lynn Hughes, an investigative analyst at ImportGenius. “Yes, the month isn’t over yet, but realistically, we still only have a week. Considering the amount of demand already pulled forward at the beginning of the year and the steady decline, I feel we could be about to start seeing imports drop below 600k TEU for several months.”
These orders have been entering U.S. ports in July and August. The ocean freight orders being placed in July and August will start arriving in September and October.
Spot rates on the Transpacific route have also steadily declined, according to maritime data company Drewry. Rates from Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 3% ($2,412/forty-foot equivalent unit/ feu), and the rate on the Shanghai–New York route reduced 5% ($3,463/feu).
On its website, Drewry noted, “The phase of accelerated purchasing by U.S. retailers, which induced an early peak season, has ended. In response to a decelerating U.S. economy and increased tariff costs, they are now scaling back on procurement. Hence, Drewry expects spot rates to be less volatile in the coming weeks.”
Hughes said there was a four-month drop in Chinese goods entering the U.S., after the first frontloading event in 2018. The pattern has also been seen in several other frontloading patterns. This includes after the February 2025 frontloading, when US shippers raced to pull forward products ahead of “Liberation Day.”
“We know what these patterns look like in shipping now, and this is the most imbalanced frontloading spike we’ve ever seen,” said Hughes.
