The best-case scenario for stocks is if Friday’s jobs report comes in slightly above consensus, according to JPMorgan. Investors will be closely scrutinizing the September labor market report, due for release on Friday morning. The numbers come at a precarious time for the economy, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the U.S. central bank is turning its focus to ensuring a strong labor market. The jobs report will certainly inform the Fed’s next move at its November meeting, and any large divergence from economists’ expectations could send stocks reeling in either direction. With this in mind, JPMorgan traders broke down how they see stocks reacting to the jobs report when it comes out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, based on a several different scenarios. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that 150,000 jobs were added last month, while JPMorgan’s own chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, sees 125,000. Here are the bank’s five scenarios: Above 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 trades flat or as much as 0.5% higher. A red-hot jobs report would point to an “economic reboot from a soft patch this summer” and would lead some investors to think that the Fed could skip a rate cut at its November meeting, JPMorgan said. Between 160,000 to 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 gains between 1% and 1.5%. JPMorgan traders pinpointed this as their “Goldilocks scenario since it would point to higher growth without an inflationary impulse.” The market would most likely price in a quarter-percentage point cut at the next Fed meeting in November. Between 140,000 to 160,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 rises by 0.75% to 1.25%. This is the consensus estimate and would still fall within JPMorgan’s “Goldilocks zone, where the economy continues to grow at a pace that supports earnings expectations without an inflation reboot.” Still, jobs growth in this range would not be enough to ease investor concerns of a potential recession. Between 110,000 to 140,000 jobs added: JPMorgan traders see the S & P 500 sliding between 0.5% and 1.5%. A print in this range would potentially reignite growth concerns and the narrative that the Fed is behind the curve and reacting too slowly to a budding downturn. Defensives would outperform, while bond yields would fall. Fewer than 110,000 jobs are added: The S & P 500 falls 1.25% to 2%. JPMorgan believes that this scenario could hint at a recession starting as early as the fourth quarter of 2024, since nonfarm payrolls usually turn lower just before an economic slowdown. Credit would outperform, while traders would unwind their bullish cyclical and value trades.
