“Zootopia 2”, “Wicked: For Good”, and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
Courtesy: Disney Enterprises, Inc. | Universal Pictures
The box office is about to heat up.
After a sizzling summer of action-packed blockbuster fare, theatrical momentum stalled in the fall. But, the winter slate is poised to deliver a consistent spark of ticket sales, pushing the 2025 domestical haul above $9 billion and toward a post-pandemic high, according to the latest estimates.
“The box office year-to-date domestically is running about 4% ahead of last year and, if we can expand on that lead, we could be looking at the biggest post-pandemic year for movies,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.
Heading into the fourth quarter, the domestic box office has tallied $6.5 billion in ticket sales this year, up from $6.3 billion a year prior, according to data from Comscore. The full-year record the box office is looking to surpass is $9.05 billion, which was tallied in 2023.
Analysts at Macquarie foresee Disney’s “Tron: Ares” as the first domino to fall, creating momentum throughout the rest of the year. Then comes Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” both of which Macquarie expects to top $250 million in domestic ticket sales. The year is capped with “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”
“Fall typically sees its ups and downs, but the trifecta formed by ‘Wicked: For Good,’ ‘Zootopia 2,’ and ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ during the holiday season cannot be overstated in its significance,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “Plenty of other films will contribute to the aggregate numbers as crucial counter-programmers and mid-range tentpoles.”
These other releases include Universal’s “Black Phone 2,” Disney and 20th Studio’s “Predator: Badlands,” Paramount’s “The Running Man” and Universal’s “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2.”
Eric Handler of Roth Capital Partners projects the fourth-quarter box office to reach $2.5 billion, which would be a 7% jump year over year. That would put full-year revenue at close to $9.1 billion, 5% higher than 2024.
Macquarie’s expectations are even higher, with the financial group estimating $2.7 billion for the quarter and a $9.2 billion year.
“And we expect the box office will grow further in 2026, driven by spillover from ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ and a slate of blockbusters and popular IP such as ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,’ ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu,’ ‘Toy Story 5,’ ‘Minions 3,’ ‘Moana,’ ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ and ‘Dune: Part Three,'” Macquarie’s team wrote.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of Fandango and NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of Fandango and CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant.
