President Donald Trump holds a news conference with Elon Musk to mark the end of the Tesla CEO’s tenure as a special government employee overseeing the U.S. DOGE Service on Friday May 30, 2025 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.
Tom Brenner | The Washington Post | Getty Images
General Motors’ announcement on Tuesday that its upcoming quarterly results will include a $1.6 billion charge from its electric vehicle investments is the latest in a string of troubling EV-related disclosures from big automakers.
Ford CEO Jim Farley said late last month that he expects demand for fully electric vehicles to be slashed in half following the end of a federal tax credit program. His prediction came after Stellantis, the parent company of auto brands including Chrysler and Jeep, said it was scrapping its target of producing nothing but electric vehicles in Europe by 2030, and backed off ambitious targets for the U.S., notably for Chrysler.
The industry, which was already facing hurdles imposed by the Trump administration, faces a hefty dose of uncertainty now that consumers can no longer take advantage of $7,500 tax credits for purchasing EVs. The incentives expired at the end of September as part of President Trump’s signature spending bill.
As automakers reset investor expectations, one name has been notably absent from the conversation: Tesla.
Elon Musk’s company is by far the largest seller of EVs in the U.S., though its market share has been sliding as competition has increased and its brand value has declined. Tesla’s share of the all-electric market in the U.S. was estimated at 43.1% at the end of September, down from 49% at the end of last year, according to data provided to CNBC from Motor Intelligence
Tesla is slated to report third-quarter results next week, and Wall Street will be eager to hear what kind of demand the company expects with the credits no longer available. Tesla recently unveiled stripped-down, lower-cost variants of its popular Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedans, offsetting some of the effective price increases that come with the loss of incentives.
Steve Greenfield, general partner at investment firm Automotive Ventures, said the retreat of legacy automakers from the segment could be good news for Tesla as its market share may start to rebound. He said in an email that the company has “very strong brand loyalty.”
“Chances are, most Tesla buyers will continue to stay in the brand, as they buy their next new car,” Greenfield said.
However, significant challenges loom. Interest in battery electric vehicles “is very likely to shrink dramatically” in the fourth quarter, he said, due to the “pull-ahead of demand,” as consumers rushed to buy EVs before the credit expired. As the year ends, Tesla will likely face a “double whammy,” Greenfield said, from reduced BEV sales and lower margins on the cars they do sell.
Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Investors have become more bullish. Following a 36% slump in the first quarter, the stock has rallied and is now up more than 7% for the year, aided by Musk’s purchase of about $1 billion worth of Tesla stock in September.
The brutal start to the year was linked to a consumer backlash in the U.S. and Europe in response to Musk’s incendiary political rhetoric, his work for President Trump slashing the federal workforce, and his endorsements of far-right groups including Germany’s AfD party.
Sharing in the pain
In the company’s third-quarter earnings scheduled for next Wednesday, analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of 3.5% from a year earlier to $26.1 billion, according to LSEG. Analysts are projecting a revenue drop in the fourth quarter and a 3.5% slide for all of 2025, which would mark the first full-year decline on record.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported a 7% year-over-year increase in quarterly vehicle deliveries for the third quarter. That marked a turnaround after two consecutive quarterly declines to start the year.
“It’s not just a retreat of everybody else, and Tesla gets to run away with the market,” said Mark Wakefield, global automotive market lead at Alix Partners, in an interview.
Even before the Republican spending bill in July, consumer demand for fully electric vehicles had “already kind of flatlined a bit,” said Wakefield. Car buyers have been looking for a “breakthrough moment” where EVs would become cost competitive with hybrid or gas-powered models.
Wakefield added that “this market needs a sense of newness,” and that the new, lower-priced Model Y and Model 3 options are not exactly “earth shattering.”
The Trump administration isn’t making life easy.
Robbie Orvis, a senior director at Energy Innovation, a nonpartisan climate policy think tank, told CNBC the automakers’ writedowns were expected and stem entirely from policy changes beyond just the tax credits.
The Trump White House has also “revoked California’s waiver to set its own vehicle standards, revoked billions in funding for EV chargers and for auto plants to retool to build EVs, and is in the process of undoing vehicle tailpipe standards that would encourage the adoption of EVs,” Orvis said.
Those policies, along with tariffs, have already caused billions of dollars in losses for U.S. automakers, which means they aren’t in a position to invest in new market segments, Orvis said.
Tesla is experiencing its share of that pain, and it’s showing up most acutely in international markets.
“Chinese automakers are rapidly displacing U.S. automakers in foreign markets as they are able to offer cheaper, higher-quality new cars, particularly EVs, in markets where there is large and growing demand for these cars,” Orvis said.
The Tesla Bot humanoid robot of Tesla ”Optimus” is displayed at the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, China, July 6, 2023.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Musk, meanwhile, continues to try and focus investor attention elsewhere.
He insists the future of the company hinges on robotaxis and humanoid robotics, two markets that Tesla has yet to meaningfully crack. Tesla is testing its Robotaxi-branded service in limited capacity in some cities, but is way behind Alphabet’s Waymo, which is rapidly expanding commercial operations.
Musk said in March that Tesla aimed to make 5,000 of its Optimus robots this year, but key departures from the group have thrown that plan into question.
In September, Musk wrote on X that “~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.” Last year, he predicted that Optimus robots would someday turn Tesla into a $25 trillion company, which was equal to more than half of the entire value of the S&P 500 at the time of his comment.
It’s a story that’s compelling enough for some longtime Tesla bulls and Musk fanboys. But at the moment, the company still relies on sales of EVs to drive its business. And in the U.S., while Tesla’s market share may be poised to rise, the overall pie — at least in the near term — appears to be shrinking.
— CNBC’s Mike Wayland contributed to this report
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