New analysis of U.S. Census data shows that states across the U.S. where key midterm elections will take place this year paid over $134 billion in tariffs in the period since President Donald Trump began implementing widespread trade duties in March 2025 through last November. In all, the U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed a total of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states during that time period.
Trump has called affordability a “Democratic hoax,” and in recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs “do not cause inflation.”
But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data from the American consumer and pricing data show that the affordability issues are real and many voters have soured on the economy. A January poll from The New York Times and Siena University found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs.
“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony said.
Anthony said his coalition is highlighting the new data to counter rhetoric about tariffs being “paid by other companies” and being “paid to Americans” and to “educate the public about how tariffs actually work and who pays the price for them: American small businesses, workers, and consumers.”
Top states and tariff bills
- California: $38 billion
- Texas: $21 billion
- Michigan: $13 billion
- Georgia: $12 billion
- Illinois: $9.6 billion
- Ohio: $6.5 billion
- Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
- North Carolina: $5 billion
- South Carolina: $5.2 billion
- Kentucky: $4 billion
This year, all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election. The Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority in the Senate. To keep control of the House, the Republican Party cannot afford to lose more than two seats.
Midterm elections primary season begins March 3 with voters heading to the polls in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.
Small businesses across America hit hard by tariffs
Many small business owners across U.S. states are speaking out about the impact the tariffs have had on their businesses, some as part of a new YouTube video-led campaign called Small Businesses Against Tariffs that launched on Wednesday in an effort to raise awareness.
Chris Gibbs, a Shelby County, Ohio, farmer of corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa hay, and a 90-head cow-calf operation, said the tariffs have hit him two-fold. “My operating costs are soaring,” said Gibbs. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber raised the cost on anything I do. From building buildings, barns, buying machinery, trailers, wheels, and parts, and even my fertilizer,” he said.
A combine harvester cuts, threshes, and cleans soybeans during a harvest in Waynesfield, Ohio.
Matthew Hatcher | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Gibbs said the trade war has also impacted his ability to sell his crops.
“In 2018, this president destroyed trade relationships, and at that moment, just like Carter in 1980 with the Russian embargo, we became an unreliable supplier. This is where we’re at, and we have not recovered,” Gibbs said. “Brazil is now the lead supplier of soybeans to China. Trump pushed President Xi into the arms of Brazil and they never left.”
Promised agricultural buys were a big part of the first trade war between the U.S. and China. China failed to meet its obligation in agricultural purchases. In 2025, China promised to increase orders, but trade data show there has been no significant pickup.
Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, told CNBC it saw a 95% decline year-over-year in soybean exports to China.
“China is now consuming most of its soybeans from places like Brazil,” said Hacegaba. “The United States produces about 20 percent of the world’s soybeans. Brazil is now at 40 percent, largely in part because China shifting its buys to Brazil. We’re doing everything that we can as a major export gateway to help our exporters move their product more efficiently, but we need certainty and clarity on trade policy to make sure that that product can move,” he said.
Gibbs said the tariff aid Trump has promised to farmers is a slap in the face to all farmers and Americans. “If these checks ever do come, it is money paid I spent on the tariffs as well as all American consumers,” Gibbs said.
At Saline, Michigan-based Hiblow USA, which specializes in linear air pumps for wastewater treatment and septic aerators used broadly across the U.S. on residential wastewater treatment systems serving rural and suburban homes, the company’s tariff bill reached $1.2 million in 2025. Tim Smith, president, said the uncertainty about the longevity of the tariffs has forced him to stop expansion plans. The southeast Michigan company has 10 employees, and the additional location would have created three to four new jobs. “We are a small business, and while some may think it’s not a lot of jobs, they are good-paying jobs,” said Smith.
“We have only passed on 40 percent of our costs to customers,” Smith said. “It has become a competitive battle between companies to see who can hold out and burn through more cash and absorb these tariffs. But I think no one can keep holding out and absorb the tariffs over the long-term,” he added.
The company imports its product from the Philippines. The country has yet to strike a deal on tariffs with the U.S. though on Monday, a 19% tariff on Philippine goods was discussed in Manila by representatives for the countries.
Smith said changing tariff rates have also put additional strain on his customs brokers. “We had to renew our Customs bonds two or three times, because we needed to add more funds to the bonds,” said Smith. “That delayed us from getting some of our containers, because the bond was in limbo. You can’t process anything without your Customs bonds.”
Customs bonds, also known as surety bonds, provide coverage to importers guaranteeing the payment of duties and taxes levied on imported goods. The value of these bonds and related collateral has soared alongside the steepening tariffs levied by the Trump administration. If a bond has insufficient funds, the importer cannot take ownership of their freight.
Even if the Supreme Court rules that many of Trump’s tariffs are illegal and requires refunds paid to businesses, with a decision possible on Feb. 20, Smith says he knows that the Trump administration has another set of tariffs waiting, so there will be no cash flow relief.
“We have always gotten our money refunded through Customs with no problem,” Smith said. “Sometimes it took up to a year, but there certainly is a framework there to do so. But what I can tell you is we are certainly not making any business plans based on a ruling that we could get our money back. There are more tariffs on the way if they are ruled illegal.”
In New York, toy store owner Jennifer Bergman closed her West Side Kids, which was founded by her mother, after 44 years of operation because of the tariffs. “The majority of our toys are manufactured in China, so the tariff costs took over our business,” said Bergman. “We were constantly getting emails from our vendors on price increases, and as a result, we had to increase our prices.”
One example was her scooter orders. Bergman said the business normally sold $50,000 in scooters every year. After the tariffs, she didn’t have a scooter priced under $200, which not only impacted her sales but her inventories. “Scooter prices went up $30,” Bergman said. “I got a phone call from my scooter company, and they told me they were rerouting their containers to Canada because of the tariffs, and they were no longer bringing them in until the tariffs were lower,” she added.
At the end of May, Bergman said she started looking at her numbers and realized she would not be able to make July rent. “June was typically one of my busiest months … but June was just deadly. I couldn’t afford the inventory to sell. I called my landlord, and luckily, we had a 44-year-old relationship with my landlord, and I said, I have to close.”
Bergman’s store closed at the end of July.
In Tempe, Arizona, Brick Road Coffee opened during the pandemic in 2021. Gabe Hagen, co-founder and CEO of the coffee shop and roasting company, said he is thankful now that the tariffs on coffee have been eliminated, but he still has coffee at the higher tariff price.
“We order 4,000 pounds of coffee monthly, primarily for two shops, and face increased costs due to tariffs on green coffee and other supplies,” said Hagen. “Despite absorbing costs at the coffee shop, unfortunately for our roasting business, we had to raise prices.”
Before the tariffs, Hagen said wholesale customers were paying around $10 a pound for roasted coffee beans. Now, customers are paying around $13.50 a pound, and he hopes it has peaked.
Coffee tariffs have seen significant, rapid shifts. Initial 10%–50% duties ranged from the higher end on Brazil (50 percent), to lower tariffs on India (25 percent), Vietnam (20 percent), and Indonesia (19 percent).
In a November 2025 executive order, most of these tariffs, including those on Brazil, were removed, but Hagen said the tariffs have created lingering effects. His company has mitigated tariff expenses by delaying store expansion and purchasing roasting equipment before the tariffs went into effect. “We were going into a time where cash is going to be king, and as a small business, I just don’t have a ton of it,” Hagen said. “So I had to cut to try to preserve and give me the longest runway possible to navigate the uncertainty.”
Hagen says consumers are weakened based on his company’s sales activity. “We are seeing our average ticket go down,” he said. “Even though our foot traffic is staying relatively stable year over year, our gross is actually lower year over year. Consumers are tightening their wallets, and they are not buying the add-ons like the muffins. Our Q4 was terrible. It was the worst in the four years that we have been open,” he said.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, says the “PTSD from the prior spike in inflation has flared up again. And if not fully passed on to consumers, businesses have absorbed it through lower profit margins. … The tariff pain is real, just ask any business and/or consumer. Inflation is the main economic pain point so I think it definitely will be a key issue.”
