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Morgan Stanley cuts oil forecast, says traders are pricing in a demand slowdown similar to mild recession
After last week’s steep sell-off, oil prices suggest traders are pricing in a demand slowdown that is similar to a mild recession, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. To be clear, Morgan Stanley’s economists anticipate a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, saying it will exit 2024 “on fundamentally sound footing.” But there are some […]
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Bull market limps into 2-year birthday with soft economic landing in doubt and stock leaders failing
The bull market was born nearly two years ago and has been sustained ever since by a sole premise: Inflation is falling faster than the U.S. economy is slowing. The downslope of price pressures was set to meet the steady advance of GDP at a crossroads called Soft Landing, at which the Federal Reserve could […]
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The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that they are turning their attention from a focus squarely on inflation to at least an equal concern about unemployment, and the latest data shows their concern is well placed. Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. […]
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Two major investor groups love these stocks, according to Goldman Sachs
Hedge funds and mutual funds — two of the biggest investor groups — piled into a handful of the same stocks last quarter in anticipation of changing market leadership and higher volatility, according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank analyzed the holdings of 693 hedge funds with $2.8 trillion of gross equity positions as […]
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Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September
With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but confirming that an interest rate cut is imminent, the market’s attention Friday quickly turned to when and by how much. Traders continued to price in a greater likelihood that the Fed will kick off what is expected to be a protracted easing campaign in September with a […]
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Markets just had the most volatile week since the pandemic outbreak — What we learned
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 […]
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JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
JPMorgan upped the likelihood it sees for the U.S. economy entering a recession this year, the latest sign of concern around the country’s financial health following the market turbulence this week. The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in […]
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Warren Buffett now owns more T-bills than the Federal Reserve
Berkshire Hathaway now owns more in Treasury bills than the U.S. Federal Reserve as Warren Buffett builds up his cash fortress to a record level. The Omaha-based conglomerate held $234.6 billion in short-term investments in Treasury bills by the end of the second quarter, while it owned more than $42 billion of cash and cash equivalents […]
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Investors are punishing stocks that miss earnings more than normal this season
Companies with disappointing quarterly results are getting punished more than usual this earnings season. Second-quarter earnings misses have resulted in an average 3.8% decline for a stock from two days before the quarterly release through the two days after the report comes out, according to FactSet. That’s compared to the five-year average price decrease of […]
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Going for gold — Three ‘Big Short’ traders say the precious metal is a major long
“The Big Short” traders Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins are focused on one of their top long bets: gold. “I just don’t think Americans have enough gold in their portfolio,” Collins said on CNBC’s ” Fast Money ” in an exclusive interview this week . The three investors are known for their successful […]
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