Strange, but true: The S & P 500 has been solidly higher 12 months after the midterm elections in every cycle since 1954, according to Yardeni Research, regardless of which party won or lost. The broad market index’s average one-year gain in 17 post-elections windows has been about 15%. Those facts are on our minds this Election Day, as voters cast their ballots amid a rough year on Wall Street. Everyone is wondering when we’ll see, or whether we’ve already seen, the bottom in the current bear market. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future outcomes, and right now many strategists are worried that inflation and recession fears could continue to weigh on stocks . We recognize the uncertain macro environment may complicate the usual post-midterm rally. Nevertheless, we think the history is worth pointing out to Club members. We also wanted to zoom in on it through a Club-specific lens, analyzing how the 31 stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust have done in the 12 months following recent midterm elections. Here’s what we did, with some caveats. We looked at only the past five midterms — 2018, 2014, 2010, 2006 and 2002 — to see which current Club stocks had the biggest 12-month gains following the election. The S & P 500’s average 12-month gain following those five elections is 8.3%. One limitation of the exercise is that not every stock in our portfolio was publicly traded in all five election cycles. Salesforce (CRM) and Alphabet (GOOGL) held initial public offerings in the summer of 2004, while Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) went public in May 2012. While we chose to highlight the best performers, there were also underperformers and stocks that were in the red in each of the past cycles we looked at. This exercise is designed to show how much stocks moved during these bullish cycles not why they performed as they did. 2018 election These are the five Club stocks with the largest gain between Nov. 6, 2018 — when the midterms were held — and Nov. 6, 2019: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microsoft (MSFT), Qualcomm (QCOM), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Estee Lauder (EL). The S & P 500 advanced 11.7% in that stretch. 2014 election The S & P 500 rose 4.5% between Nov. 4, 2014 and Nov. 4, 2015. These are the five best-performing Club stocks over those 12 months: Amazon (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), Constellation Brands (STZ), Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms. 2010 election Between Nov. 2, 2010 and Nov. 2, 2011, the S & P 500 climbed 3.7%. These are the Club’s top five performers in that span: Estee Lauder, Starbucks (SBUX), Humana (HUM), Bausch Health (BHC) and Costco Wholesale (COST). Note: This list does not include Coterra Energy (CTRA), which soared 163% in the 12 months following the 2010 midterms. The company was known as Cabot Oil & Gas back then. In 2021, it rebranded as Coterra following an all-stock merger of equals with Cimarex Energy. 2006 election The S & P 500 rose 6.7% between Nov. 7, 2006 and Nov. 7, 2007. These 5 Club names registered the largest gains during those 12 months: Apple (AAPL), Amazon, Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Nvidia and Google parent Alphabet. 2002 election Over the past five midterm cycles, the S & P 500 saw its largest 12-month gain between Nov. 5, 2002 and Nov. 6, 2003, jumping 14.9%. These are the best-performing Club holdings in that stretch: Amazon, AMD, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Humana and Wynn Resorts. Final Club thoughts Only two Club holdings outperformed the S & P 500 in each of the 12-month windows following a midterm election: Apple, which was the biggest winner in the 2006 cycle, and Honeywell (HON), even thought it never cracked the top five in an individual yearlong span. Interestingly, there were five Club holdings — Apple, Amazon, Honeywell, Costco and Estee Lauder — that were positive in the 12 months after the midterms in each of the past five election cycles. Finally, it’s also worth reminding everyone that performance over a 12-month period following a specific event — in this case, a midterm election — is just a snapshot in time and does not, necessarily, reflect how the company’s underlying business did during the period. A wide range of factors — some specific to a company, others more macro in nature — affect how a stock trades in the near term. But over the long run, the best companies tend to get rewarded by the market. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’ Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
People walk past the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street on July 12, 2022 in New York City.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Strange, but true: The S&P 500 has been solidly higher 12 months after the midterm elections in every cycle since 1954, according to Yardeni Research, regardless of which party won or lost. The broad market index’s average one-year gain in 17 post-elections windows has been about 15%.
