Stock futures reversed course to tick higher early Tuesday after major averages swung sharply in a volatile session and traders kept a close eye on the latest developments out of Iran.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 197 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures jumped 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5%. Futures tied to all three indexes had earlier been trading in negative territory.
President Donald Trump on Monday evening said, “We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective,” reinforcing his comments from earlier in the session that the military campaign could soon end. Speaking at a press conference at his golf club near Miami, Trump also said, “We are also focused on keeping energy and oil flowing to the world.”
In regular trading on Monday, stocks staged a stunning comeback from their session lows. The 30-stock Dow added about 239 points, or 0.5%, rebounding from a loss of nearly 900 points. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% higher after falling as much as 1.5% during the regular session. The Nasdaq Composite similarly reversed course and finished higher by nearly 1.4%.
The swift turnaround in the regular session came after Trump told CBS’ senior White House correspondent Weijia Jiang that “the war is very complete, pretty much.” The president also told CBS News that the U.S. is “very far” ahead of his previously stated timeframe of four to five weeks and that he is “thinking about” taking over the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the president said the war would not come to an end this week.
Following Trump’s comments, West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $81 a barrel, after hitting above $100 per barrel in overnight trading to more than $119. The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, pulled back to $84 a barrel. Oil prices were last above $100 in 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
On Tuesday morning, oil prices continued to slide but remained elevated, with Brent crude last seen 7.2% lower at $91.81 a barrel, while WTI crude was down 7.4% at $87.80 a barrel.
“This is just a real clear indication that oil’s in the driver’s seat in the near term. Just from peak to trough, in one day, we saw oil prices correct down 30%, and risk assets, and specifically the stock market, rally throughout the news,” Matt Stucky, Northwestern Mutual chief portfolio manager, said Monday.
On Tuesday morning, energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations — namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — are set to meet virtually to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves.
It comes after G7 finance ministers met to discuss the situation on Monday. In a statement, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol — who attended the meeting — said the conflict in the Middle East was “creating significant and growing risks for the market,” but said various options, including freeing up IEA emergency oil stocks, had been discussed.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi oil giant Aramco, told an earnings call on Tuesday that the Iran war will have “catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil market.”
In a note on Tuesday morning, Paul Gooden, head of global natural resources at Ninety One, said oil prices could spike above $120 a barrel if the disruption to the market is extended.
“Oil prices could spike further until higher prices begin to curb demand,” he said. “At that point, consumers and businesses change behaviour: driving less, flying less, or shifting to alternative energy sources. That process of “demand destruction” has historically acted as a natural ceiling for sustained price spikes.”
In economic news, traders are watching for inflation data due this week. February’s consumer price index reading is due Wednesday, and January’s personal consumption expenditures price index will be out Friday. Both reports will not reflect the recent surge in oil prices caused by the war with Iran.
“We may see a bit of an uptick in for CPI inflation over the coming quarter based on what we saw happen this month, but I don’t think that derails, for example, the case for the Fed to actually cut interest rates,” Stucky said.
“In fact, if this continues — which, again, is not the base case — then the spike in oil is a consumption tax, and it does negatively impact financial market,” he added. “So I would expect the Fed to provide easing … or at least look through it, rather than hiking interest rates.”
Separately, earnings on deck this week include Oracle out Tuesday and Adobe due Thursday.
