Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 18, 2026.
NYSE
Stock futures were little changed Thursday night ahead of the release of crucial economic data and a potential key ruling from the Supreme Court on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 6 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered just below the flatline.
Traders will get an update on the state of the economy Friday morning, with the release of the gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Dow Jones see real GDP gaining 2.5%. The 4.4% advance in the third quarter sharply surpassed estimates.
The personal consumption expenditures price index report — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — is also due. The headline reading is expected to show a 2.8% advance on a year-over-year basis, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. The core PCE, which excludes volatile and energy prices, is expected to have risen 3% over the prior 12 months.
Fed policymakers are divided between officials who are worried about supporting the labor market and those who are more concerned about inflation. The pace of price increases has generally trended lower, but inflation is still ahead of the central bank’s 2% mandate. Minutes from the January Fed meeting indicate that some officials will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before voting for additional interest rate cuts.
Friday may also bring a highly anticipated Supreme Court decision, as many on Wall Street expect a ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Traders mostly believe the stock market will react positively if the duties are knocked down, even with expectations the White House will use other means to reapply them at another time. The Supreme Court, which doesn’t divulge beforehand the cases it will rule on, also has decision days scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday.
“We think the market is treading water right now waiting for its next catalyst,” said Paul Stanley, chief investment officer of Granite Bay Wealth Management. He expects the Supreme Court ruling, along with Nvidia earnings results next week, to be potentially market-moving in the short term.
“The fact that the S&P 500 is flat this year, but the Nasdaq is down so far this year, suggests that the market’s broadening is alive and well, which is encouraging for investors,” he added.
The S&P 500 on Thursday lost nearly 0.3%, leaving the broad-market index little changed for the year. The Nasdaq Composite also shed 0.3% in the regular session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 267 points, or 0.5%.
Tensions increased between the U.S. and Iran after Trump said he will determine whether to launch military strikes against the country in the next 10 days. Oil prices also rose on fears of an attack.
Week to date, the S&P 500 is on pace for modest gains, up 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is set to snap a five-week losing streak, up 0.6% through Thursday. The Dow is heading for a 0.2% loss in the period.
—CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed reporting.
