Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a “When We Vote We Win” campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada.
Ethan Miller | Getty Images
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% among likely voters, according to a shocking new poll released Saturday night, just three days before Election Day.
Harris’ advantage is within the poll’s 3.4 percentage point margin of error, but her lead reflects a 7-point swing by voters in her favor since September.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll’s results came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst has predicted that the Democratic nominee will defeat Trump in the state.
Neither candidate had campaigned in the state, which Trump has easily won in the past two presidential elections, since the presidential primaries concluded.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co told the Des Moines Register.
“She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Selzer & Co. conducted the survey of 808 likely voters in Iowa from Monday to Thursday. Selzer’s company is highly respected by pollsters and her findings typically carry significant weight with political strategists.
Harris’ lead in the poll was powered by strong support from female voters, particularly older and politically independent ones.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Register.
The poll found that 3% of respondents supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his campaign to back Trump. Kennedy remains on Iowa’s ballot.
The same poll in September showed Trump leading Harris, the current vice president, by 4 percentage points. Trump led President Joe Biden, the then-presumptive Democratic nominee, by 18 percentage points in June.
Trump won the state by 8 percentage points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016.
The Republican’s campaign issued a memo Saturday night that called the poll an “outlier.”
The memo noted that the new Emerson College poll of likely Iowa voters, released earlier Saturday, showed Trump leading Harris by 53% to 43%.
“Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five-point margin, 51% to 46%, and men by a significant 17-point margin, 56% to 39%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a post about the results. “Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%.”
The Trump campaign memo said, “Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.”
This is a developing story, please check back for updates.