Putin has made a ‘big mistake,’ NATO says; Ukraine appears to be retaking ground

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in power for more than two decades and during that time has carefully cultivated an image of himself as a tough, strongman leader, fighting for Russia’s interests and reinstating the country as a geopolitical and economic superpower.

With his decision to invade neighboring Ukraine, however, analysts say Putin has made the biggest mistake of his political career and has weakened Russia for years to come.

The country and its strongman leader are now pariahs on the global stage, and Russia’s economy is facing more pain with further sanctions to be discussed by world leaders meeting today.

The Institute of International Finance has said it expects Russia’s economy to contract by 15% in 2022, driven by both official sanctions and the “self-sanctioning” of foreign companies that have pulled out of Russia.

Predicting a further economic decline of 3% in 2023, the IIF said Wednesday that the war “will wipe out fifteen years of economic growth.”

— Holly Ellyatt

One month into the war in Ukraine, the liberal, democratic West is aggressively wooing India, curiously willing to look past its “neutral” stance on Russia’s invasion. 

Over the past week, India’s partners in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) — the United States, Australia and Japan — have come calling on New Delhi, in-person and virtually. 

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and U.S. State Department officials met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior Indian officials, discussing bilateral and Indo-Pacific issues while skipping mention of India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s attack. 

India has so far abstained on four United Nations resolutions related to the Ukraine war. But the latest — an abstention on a Russian-sponsored vote on Wednesday — was the first attempt by the country to align itself with broader international opinion against the Ukraine invasion. Only China and Russia voted in favor of the resolution that referred to a “humanitarian crisis” while making no mention of an invasion. It failed to pass.

The war is creating interesting geopolitical options for India, a democracy with a cultural and political affinity to the West. At the same time, it also has decades-old ties with Russia on whom it depends for most of its arms supplies. The West has been more understanding of India’s predicament.

— Ravi Buddhavarapu

President Putin has made “a big mistake,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Thursday, ahead of an extraordinary meeting of the transatlantic military alliance in Brussels.

— Holly Ellyatt

The war in Ukraine is top of the agenda as leaders from the world’s most advanced nations prepare to meet on Thursday.

There are three key meetings ahead with an extraordinary NATO summit taking place in Brussels, as well as meetings of EU leaders and the Group of Seven (G-7).

U.S. President Joe Biden is attending the meetings and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to address the NATO summit via videolink.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is expected to commit to “major increases” in the number of troops it has along its eastern flank. Additional arms and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine is also expected to be on the agenda.

Possible extra sanctions on Russia will be discussed when President Biden meets his EU counterparts at a session of the European Council.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian forces are beginning to set up defensive positions about 10 to 12 miles away from Kyiv’s city center, according to a senior U.S. Defense official.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details from the Pentagon’s ongoing assessment of the war, said that Russians have been largely stalled outside of Kyiv for weeks now.

“We are starting to see now that they are basically digging in and they are establishing defensive positions,” the official said of Russian forces.

“So it’s not that they’re not advancing, they’re actually not trying to advance right now,” the official said, adding that Russian troops do not appear to continue an advance on Kyiv anytime soon.

– Amanda Macias

Ukrainian defenders in the vicinity of Kyiv are mounting successful counterattacks near the capital and appear to be retaking lost ground, the British Defence Ministry said Wednesday night, though reports from the area partially contradicted those claims.

The ministry said in an intelligence update that Ukraine is bringing “increasing pressure” northeast of Kyiv, where a long-stalled advance by Russian troops has left them facing “considerable supply and morale issues.”

Ukrainian forces have probably retaken the towns of Makariv and Moschun, said the ministry.

Moschun is close to Kyiv and due north, while Makariv is about 20 miles (32 km) due west of the capital.

The Ukrainian government first claimed to have retaken Makariv on Tuesday. Journalists from the Washington Post who were in the vicinity reported on Wednesday evening that Ukrainian soldiers were in the town, but it was still being struck by Russian artillery.

The U.K. ministry added that there is “a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin.” Both of those towns border Kyiv’s western city limits.

CNBC was unable to independently corroborate the ministry’s claims. The situation on the ground in Ukraine is fluid and often impossible to verify.

“It is likely that successful counter attacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganise and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” the Defence Ministry said.

— Ted Kemp

The Kremlin has informed U.S. officials that more American diplomats will be ordered to leave Russia, a State Department spokesman said.

“The U.S. Embassy received a list of diplomats declared ‘persona non grata’ from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on March 23,” a spokesperson wrote in an evening statement.

“This is Russia’s latest unhelpful and unproductive step in our bilateral relationship. We call on the Russian government to end its unjustified expulsions of U.S. diplomats and staff. Now more than ever, it is critical that our countries have the necessary diplomatic personnel in place to facilitate communication between our governments,” the spokesperson wrote.

Earlier in the week, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs told U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan in Moscow that relations between Washington and Moscow were on the “verge of rupture.

Biden has previously called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a war criminal for his attacks on Ukraine. It was the first time Biden had publicly branded the Russian leader with that phrase.

– Amanda Macias

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is slated to announce a major new arms package for Ukraine at the NATO and G7 leaders’ meetings on Thursday.

The UK will provide Ukraine with 6,000 missiles, including anti-tank and high explosive weapons as well as $33 million or £25 million in financial backing.

“This more than doubles the defensive lethal aid provided to date to more than 10,000 missiles and comes on top of the £400 million ($528 million) the UK has committed in humanitarian and economic aid for the crisis,” 10 Downing Street wrote in a statement announcing the measure.

The UK has sent more than 4,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine’s armed forces, including Javelin missiles and Starstreak high-velocity anti-air missiles to help defend against aerial bombings.

Additionally, Johnson is committing $5.4 million or £4.1 million to the BBC World Service in order to help tackle Russian disinformation. Johnson is also expected to announce some financial support for the International Criminal Court’s investigation into war crimes.

– Amanda Macias