Hugo Soares, PSD parliamentary leader walks, following the first exit polls, at Portugal’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Democratic Alliance (AD) leader Luis Montenegro’s electoral night headquarters, in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 18, 2025.
Violeta Santos Moura | Reuters
Portugal’s center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) claimed victory in Sunday’s early parliamentary election, but again fell short of a full majority, provisional data showed, leaving the center-left Socialists and far-right Chega neck-and-neck for second spot.
The election, the third in as many years, was called just one year into the minority government’s term after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro failed to win a parliamentary vote of confidence in March when the opposition questioned his integrity over dealings of his family’s consultancy firm.
Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing, and voters have largely dismissed the opposition’s criticism and apparently punished the main opposition Socialists at the polls for being instrumental in bringing down his minority government.
Official electoral data showed the AD receiving over 34% of the vote.
Far-right Chega, on the other hand, outperformed most opinion polls and was at 23.3% with half of the vote counted, compared to the 18% it obtained in last year’s election. Chega was just ahead of the Socialists at 23%.
Montenegro has refused to make any deals with Chega, meaning his government would have to negotiate piecemeal parliamentary support.
“We will await the final verdict, but it seems safe to say … the AD had a very strong electoral victory,” said Hugo Soares, the parliamentary bench leader of Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party, the senior partner in the AD.
Early tallies can be unreliable as results from smaller municipalities come in first, while ballots in large cities such as Lisbon and Porto are counted towards the end.
The election, also dominated by issues such as housing and immigration, follows a decade of fragile governments; the only one of which to have a parliamentary majority still collapsed halfway through its term last year.
Anti-immigration, anti-establishment Chega, a party founded in 2019 by charismatic former football commentator Andre Ventura, became the third-largest parliamentary force in 2022 and quadrupled its seats in 2024.
“We still don’t know if we’ll come in second or third place,” said Pedro Pinto, Chega’s bench leader. “What we know is that the system is already shaking.”
It could be the first time in almost 40 years that the Socialists finish below the top two.
‘Stable solution’
Outside the polling station where Montenegro voted in the northern city of Espinho, Irene Medeiros, 77, said the “best candidate must win,” but that she feared more uncertainty ahead.
Political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto said the new parliament would likely be similar to the last, and it was impossible to predict how long the government would last, as it depended on factors ranging from the international situation to the AD’s ability to reach deals with other parties.
“The only doubt is whether the AD will form a new minority government … or whether it will form a post-electoral coalition with IL, even if this coalition does not guarantee an absolute majority,” he said, referring to the pro-business Liberal Initiative (IL) party.
IL, a party some analysts see as a potential coalition ally of the AD, was at 4.5% of the vote, which is still insufficient for a potential alliance to reach a majority of 116 seats in the 230-seat parliament.
Shortly after casting his own ballot, Montenegro told reporters he was confident stability could be achieved.
“There is a search for a stable solution, but that will now depend on (people’s) choices,” he said.
Portugal has outperformed most European Union countries on economic growth, and run budget surpluses and reduced its debts under both center-left and center-right governments.
But further political instability could delay major projects such as lithium mining in the north, and potentially compromise the long-delayed privatization of the TAP airline.