US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on Air Force One before taking off from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Feb. 19, 2026.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
Oil prices hovered near six-month highs on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that “really bad things” will happen if there was no deal over its nuclear program.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with April delivery traded 0.7% lower at $71.17 per barrel at around 10:25 a.m. London time (5:25 a.m. ET), erasing earlier gains, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with March delivery stood 0.6% lower at $66.02.
Both contracts notched their highest settle in six months in the previous session as energy market participants continue to monitor supply risks in the oil-rich Middle East.
The U.S. and Iran have held talks in Switzerland this week to try to resolve a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program. Initial reports of progress, however, gave way to accusations from Washington that Iran had failed to address core U.S. demands.
Speaking at the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington on Thursday, the U.S. president said “bad things will happen” if Tehran doesn’t agree to a deal over its nuclear program.
Trump added that the world will likely find out over the next 10 days whether the U.S. will reach a deal with Iran or take military action. He later told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wanted an agreement within “10 to 15 days.”
Brent crude futures over the last six months.
His comments come after a significant buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East and amid reports the White House is considering fresh military action against Tehran as soon as this weekend.
Trump said Iran’s nuclear potential had been “totally decimated” by U.S. strikes on its facilities in June last year, before adding “we may have to take it a step further or we may not,” without providing further details.
Iran reportedly said in a letter to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday that Tehran will respond “decisively” if subjected to military aggression.
The Islamic Republic has conducted military drills in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz in recent days, as well as joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman, also known as the Sea of Oman.
Naval units from Iran and Russia carry out to simulation of rescue a hijacked vessel during the joint naval drills held at the Port of Bandar Abbas near the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan, Iran on February 19, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
“Everything is in place, or will be by Saturday night, for strikes to commence and so the window opens then,” Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Friday.
“Doesn’t mean that’s going to happen immediately. The president did indicate that he is waiting to hear from Iran whether they are prepared to make concessions on their nuclear program that he’s insisting on,” Shapiro said.
“I think it’s unlikely. We have never seen Iran open to those types of concessions, so I think it is unlikely they will agree to those, which means that in the days coming, the president will have to make that decision on military strikes,” he added.
A ‘very well supplied’ market
The Trump administration has said it still hopes to reach a diplomatic resolution over Tehran’s nuclear program, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that it would be “very wise” for Iran to make a deal.
Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that, while the oil market is “very well supplied” on a global basis, there are three factors propping up prices.
“Worries about Iran, clearly. Also, an unusually large amount of buying by China, simply for stockpiling purposes. It makes you wonder what they are going to do with all these inventories and then also we have very high freight rates,” Rats told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Friday.
“The factor of those three that is most prominent, of course, is the issue in Iran,” Rats said.
Strategists at Barclays said Friday that while equity markets have largely shrugged off the geopolitical noise so far, tensions have been rising since Vice President JD Vance accused Iran of failing to discuss so-called “red lines,” alongside reports of increased U.S. military capability in the region.
“We believe that any strike would likely have to be time limited and with defined targets (nuclear, ballistic missiles), as they were last summer,” the strategists said in a research note.
“With midterm elections later this year and the administration prioritizing affordability for US consumers, we suspect their willingness to tolerate a prolonged period of significantly higher oil prices, and potentially casualties too, will be limited,” they continued. “So if conflict is imminent it is likely to be short lived, in our view.”