Oil industry that Trump wants to ‘drill, baby, drill’ has taken a beating since he took office

President Donald Trump wants the oil and gas industry to “drill, baby, drill” in pursuit of his energy dominance agenda, but the companies involved in the actual drilling and servicing of wells have instead taken a beating during his first 100 days in office.

U.S. crude oil prices have fallen below $65 per barrel, down more than 20% since Trump’s second term began, making it unprofitable for many companies to boost production, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Executives on the frontline of the U.S. shale oil boom were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s policies in anonymous responses to that same survey. They used the word “uncertainty” in their comments more than in any quarter since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic five years ago, according to Mason Hamilton, vice president of economics and research at the American Petroleum Institute.

Oilfield service firms Baker Hughes, Halliburton and SLB are warning that investment in exploration, drilling and production will slow this year due to falling oil prices. Shares of Baker Hughes and SLB are down more than 20% since Trump’s inauguration while Halliburton has slumped 32%.

The S&P 500 energy sector has fallen more than 11% since Jan. 20, more than the broader market’s decline of nearly 8%.

SLB CEO Olivier Le Peuch told investors last week that Trump’s tariffs are causing economic uncertainty that could hurt demand, while the group of producers known as OPEC+ is accelerating supply faster than originally anticipated.

“In this environment, commodity prices are challenged and until they stabilize, customers are likely to take a more cautious approach to near-term activity and discretionary spending,” Le Peuch said last week on SLB’s first-quarter earnings call with analysts and investors.

Less drilling

The North American petroleum market faces more downside risk than the rest of the world because onshore oil production in the U.S. is more sensitive to commodity prices, the SLB CEO said.

Baker Hughes forecasts global upstream investment in exploration and production will decline by high-single digits this year compared to 2024, with spending in North America falling by low double digits, CEO Lorenzo Simonelli told investors on its earnings call, also last week.

“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Simonelli said.

But the situation is fluid, with little visibility into what the second half of the year will bring, especially for more economically-sensitive activities such as drilling and completion of wells, the Baker Hughes chief said. There’s even a risk that the outlook could deteriorate further, he said.

“These expectations assume a stabilization of oil prices around the current levels and [that] tariffs hold at the current 90-day pause rates,” Simonelli said. “A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook.”

For his part, Halliburton CEO Jeffrey Miller said customers are “evaluating their activity scenarios and plans for 2025.” Miller warned on Halliburton’s recent earnings call that a reduction in activity could result in “higher-than-normal whitespace,” referring to periods when equipment is not being used.

SLB expects revenue to be flat or grow by mid-single digits in the second half of the year. Baker Hughes sees a tariff impact of $100 to $200 million to its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, assuming tariff rates don’t increase further this year. Halliburton is forecasting that trade tensions will hit its earnings by 2 to 3 cents per share in the second quarter.

Energy secretary promises ‘clarity’

Drilling contractor Patterson-UTI Energy also sees an uncertain outlook, though activity levels haven’t been affected yet, CEO William Hendricks said on the company’s earnings call last Thursday. Patterson-UTI’s stock has tumbled about 35% since Trump came to office.

“If oil prices remain near current levels for an extended period, we could see some of our customers reevaluate their plans,” Hendricks said. The CEO said exploration and production companies are waiting to see if oil prices bounce back to the upper-$60-per-barrel range.

“In the lower-60s, we could see some softening if it stays in there,” Hendricks said. “Certainly, there would be some E&Ps that make some decisions to reduce their budgets. But even in the low-60s, I wouldn’t expect a drastic response from the customer base that we work for,” he said.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged to oil and gas executives at a conference in Oklahoma City last week that there is “a lot of anxiety and uncertainty” in the industry right now.

“That’ll be gone in a few weeks. Maybe it’s a few months, but I think in a few weeks we’ll get some clarity on that,” Wright said, defending Trump’s trade policy. The oilfield services provider that Wright founded, Liberty Energy, has swooned nearly 46% since Trump’s inauguration.

Wright argued at the Oklahoma conference that U.S. reindustrialization as a result of Trump’s trade policy will ultimately boost energy demand. In an interview with CNBC on Monday, the energy secretary said he does not expect U.S. oil production to drop meaningfully.

“Our administration, we don’t have any impact on the short-term movement of oil prices or any price for that matter,” Wright told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan. “We are trying to do everything we can to lower the cost to produce a barrel of oil,” he said, pointing to Trump’s efforts to slash regulations and speed permitting.