The S&P 500 should get a bigger push than usual after Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, recent options data suggests.
The S&P 500 is slated to rise or fall 1.3% over the next two days, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs. That is larger than the typical move of 0.8% in either direction seen on average by the broad index following Nvidia’s last eight earnings reports.
That is due in part to an outsized move expected in Nvidia shares. The chipmaker’s two-day straddles imply the stock will either rally or tumble 10.3% follow its earnings print. Over the past eight earnings cycles, it has notched an average realized move of 9.2% in either direction.
Nvidia has been a popular name in the options market, with the megacap tech giant representing 15% of all single-stock options over the past month.
Nvidia, 1-year
The report comes at a pivotal point for Nvidia amid rising concerns around artificial intelligence investment and competition. Nvidia shares have dropped around 1% in 2025 following two years of monster gains as AI captured investor attention.
Yet, Wall Street expects the stock to rebound. The average analyst has a buy rating and price target suggesting more than 34% upside, per LSEG.
Given Nvidia’s size with a market cap of more than $3 trillion, the stock’s postearnings move is also likely to move a plethora of exchange-traded funds with significant holdings in the stock. Here are the 10 that have moved most on average following Nvidia earnings over the past two years when adjusted for volume:
ETFs that have moved off Nvidia earnings
| Ticker | Fund | Average volume adjusted move over past 8 earnings reports (%) | Average absolute move over past 8 earnings reports (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| XLK | Technology Select Sector SPDR | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ | 1 | 1.2 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR | 1 | 0.7 |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 1 | 0.7 |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 | 1 | 0.8 |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | 1 | 0.8 |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Source: Goldman Sachs
