GMC SUVs parked outside a GMC Buick dealership in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, on March 22, 2025.
Artur Widak | Nurphoto | Getty Images
DETROIT — Uncertainty surrounding U.S. regulations on tariffs, electric vehicles and other auto-related issues have given new car sales a surprising boost heading into the fourth quarter, according to a new industry analysis.
Cox Automotive on Thursday raised its 2025 new vehicle U.S. sales forecast to 16.1 million from a previous range of 15.6 million to 15.7 million due to stronger-than-expected demand so far this year. That would be up from roughly 16 million vehicles sold domestically in 2024.
Cox analysts said the resilient sales — forecast to be up 4.6% compared with the same time period last year — are due to consumers deciding not to wait to buy a new vehicle for fear of higher prices.
The first bump occurred earlier in the year amid President Donald Trump’s announcements of tariffs. That was followed more recently by a surge in EV sales ahead of the end of an up to $7,500 federal credit for the purchase of such vehicles that will be eliminated at the end of this month.
“The role of changing policies has been a positive story for the new vehicle market so far, with sales running well ahead of last year’s pace,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said during a Thursday webinar. “A strong stock market is supporting vehicle demand and uncertainty around future. Higher prices [are] leading many potential vehicle buyers to purchase sooner rather than later.”
The pull-ahead in sales has benefitted the U.S. automotive industry so far this year, but Chesbrough said the pace of sales — currently at 16.3 million — is expected to slow in the fourth quarter and into next year.
Auto stocks
“We expect Q4 sales to slow as demand for EVs and plug-ins falls once tax credits expire and tariff costs are incorporated more into pricing for the performance of the manufacturers in 2025,” he said.
The robust sales, as well as regulatory changes eliminating fuel efficiency fines and corporate tax change benefits, have helped some automakers offset part of the higher tariff costs, according to Cox analysts.
Regarding sales, Cox predicts General Motors has benefited the most from the resilient demand through the third quarter, with a 1 percentage point increase in U.S. market share compared with the same period a year earlier. The Detroit automaker is followed by Toyota Motor and Hyundai Motor, both expected to be up 0.6 percentage points, and by Ford Motor, forecasted to be up 0.4 percentage points.
“The biggest are getting bigger, while smaller and more specialized brands are stalling or losing share,” Chesbrough said. “It may be that having more product offerings across more segments is key to capturing more buyers in today’s market.”
Smaller carmakers in the U.S. such as Nissan Motor, Volkswagen, Subaru and Tesla, are all estimated to have lost market share through the third quarter of this year, according to Cox. Jeep parent Stellantis also continues to struggle amid a yearslong sales decline, Cox estimated.
Many automakers are scheduled to release their third-quarter sales starting next week, followed by third-quarter earnings reports beginning late next month.
