Market jump after Fed rate hike is a ‘trap,’ Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns investors

Market jump after Fed rate hike is a ‘trap,’ Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns investors


Morgan Stanley is urging investors to resist putting their money to work in stocks despite the market’s post-Fed-decision jump.

Mike Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, said he believes Wall Street’s excitement over the idea that interest rate hikes may slow sooner than expected is premature and problematic.

“The market always rallies once the Fed stops hiking until the recession begins. … [But] it’s unlikely there’s going to be much of a gap this time between the end of the Fed hiking campaign and the recession,he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday. “Ultimately, this will be a trap.”

According to Wilson, the most pressing issues are the effect the economic slowdown will have on corporate earnings and the risk of Fed over-tightening.

“The market has been a bit stronger than you would have thought given the growth signals have been consistently negative,” he said. “Even the bond market is now starting to buy into the fact that the Fed is probably going to go too far and drive us into recession.”

‘Close to the end’

Wilson has a 3,900 year-end price target on the S&P 500, one of the lowest on Wall Street. That implies a 3% dip from Wednesday’s close and a 19% drop from the index’s closing high hit in January.

His forecast also includes a call for the market to take another leg lower before getting to the year-end target. Wilson is bracing for the S&P to fall below 3,636, the 52-week low hit last month.

“We’re getting close to the end. I mean this bear market has been going on for a while,” Wilson said. “But the problem is it won’t quit, and we need to have that final move, and I don’t think the June low is the final move.”

Wilson believes the S&P 500 could fall as low as 3,000 in a 2022 recession scenario.

“It’s really important to frame every investment in terms of ‘What is your upside versus your downside,'” he said. “You’re taking a lot of risk here to achieve whatever is left on the table. And, to me, that’s not investing.”

Wilson considers himself conservatively positioned — noting he’s underweight stocks and likes defensive plays including health care, REITs, consumer staples and utilities. He also sees merits of holding extra cash and bonds at the moment.

And, he’s not in a rush to put money to work and has been “hanging out” until there are signs of a trough in stocks.

“We’re trying to give them [clients] a good risk-reward. Right now, the risk-reward, I would say, is about 10 to one negative,” Wilson said. “It’s just not great.”

Disclaimer



Source

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Brown-Forman, Five Below, Ciena, PVH, Planet Labs and more
Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Brown-Forman, Five Below, Ciena, PVH, Planet Labs and more

Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: MongoDB — The document storage and retrieval provider surged 16% after first-quarter earnings of $1 per share, excluding one-time items, topped an LSEG estimate of 66 cents per share. Revenue of $549 million topped the consensus estimate of $528 million. Tesla — The electric vehicle maker […]

Read More
Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Circle, Five Below, Chewy, MongoDB, Lands End and more
Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Circle, Five Below, Chewy, MongoDB, Lands End and more

Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. Circle Internet Group — The stablecoin issuer priced its upsized, $1 billion initial public offering at $31 a share, above an expected range of $27-$28 and an initial range last week of $24 to $26, giving Circle a total market value of some $7 billion. Five […]

Read More
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Five Below, MongoDB, Verint Systems and more
Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Five Below, MongoDB, Verint Systems and more

Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading: Five Below — Shares of the discount retailer added 2.5% on the back of strong first-quarter financial results and second-quarter guidance. Five Below reported adjusted earnings of 86 cents per share on $971 million in revenue, while analysts polled by LSEG called for 82 cents per […]

Read More