Kevin Warsh has surged ahead of Kevin Hassett in prediction markets betting on who President Donald Trump will nominate as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, as doubts grow inside Trump’s orbit about Hassett’s candidacy.
On Kalshi, traders on Monday marked Warsh as the narrow favorite to replace Jerome Powell, assigning him roughly a 46% chance of nomination, compared with about 39% for Hassett. Just last week, Hassett’s odds were as high as 77%, and Warsh’s chance was as low as 10%.
The shift follows fresh pushback against Hassett from high-level figures with direct access to the president, according to people familiar with the matter. Those advisers have raised concerns that Hassett, currently director of the National Economic Council, is seen as too close to Trump.
The resistance may help explain a bout of uncertainty in the process earlier this month, when interviews with prospective candidates were abruptly canceled in early December. At least in Warsh’s case, those interviews were later put back on the calendar and held last week, the people said.
Warsh, a former Fed governor who served from 2006 to 2011, has long been viewed as a credible pick for Republicans. Hassett has been a fixture of Trump’s economic team across both terms, a proximity that some advisers now fear could undermine the Fed’s institutional standing.
The market move accelerated after Trump injected new ambiguity into the race late last week. After previously telling reporters he already knew whom he would choose as Fed chair, Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that Warsh had risen to the top tier of contenders.
