Japan’s snap elections: A reckless risk or calculated gamble?

Less than half a year into office and Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has called a snap election, dissolving the Lower House on Jan. 23 and sending voters to the polls on Feb. 8.

“I am putting my future as prime minister on this election,” Takaichi said at a press conference Monday, according to a Google translation of her remarks in Japanese.

“I would like the people to make a direct decision on whether they can entrust the management of the nation to Sanae Takaichi.”

The move comes despite the Lower House’s term running until October 2028, raising questions over why Takaichi chose to seek a fresh mandate so early.

Analysts say the decision is largely aimed at capitalizing on Takichi’s high approval ratings to strengthen the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition hold on parliament.

Takaichi has enjoyed historically high approval ratings since taking office. Her approval rating stood at 62% in a survey published last week by public broadcaster NHK, while other polls have placed her support in the 70% range.

A Japan News Network poll showed an approval rating of as high as 78.1%, while Nikkei reported 75%.

By contrast, the LDP’s approval rating is at 29.7%, highlighting a gap between support for the prime minister and her party.

The LDP, along with its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, currently holds a razor-thin majority in the Lower House.

Both parties have a combined total of 230 seats in the 456-seat chamber, but 3 independents vote with the LDP, giving the ruling coalition a 1-seat majority.

A stronger majority would allow Takaichi to project a firmer political mandate to foreign leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump, said Sam Jochim, economist at Swiss private bank EFG. He noted that Takaichi could have a potential meeting with the U.S. president as early as March.

Jochim added that Takaichi will be aiming to capitalize on her popularity before escalating tensions with China begin to weigh on public sentiment.

Beijing has imposed export controls on dual-use items to Japan and advised its citizens against travel to Japan.

Diplomatic relations cooled after Takaichi said in parliament on Nov. 8 that a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan by force could prompt Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to intervene.

Despite Takaichi’s popularity, analysts warn that voter support may not translate to gains for the LDP.

Jochim said that Takaichi was “taking a risk” by calling this election, pointing out that “while she is an extremely popular Prime Minister, her party is less popular and faces a united opposition following a surprise partnership between the main opposition party and the former LDP coalition partner.”

On Jan. 16, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, joined with Komeito — the LDP’s former coalition partner for 26 years — to create a new party called the “Centrist Reform Alliance.”

Together, they control 172 seats in the Lower House.

Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan Economist at Oxford Economics, said that without Komeito’s organizational support, a considerable number of LDP candidates could struggle at the ballot box.

Other analysts are more optimistic. Jesper Koll, expert director at Monex Group, said Takaichi was an “inspiration” to both old and particularly young Japanese.

Her personal appeal, rather than her economic policies, may prove decisive and drive a landslide victory, he said.

“Takaichi is the living example of a self-made woman rising to the top against all the odds — self-made, a normal working-class family background, neither money nor Brahman,” Koll said. “But hard work, dedication, passion, and willingness to do what is right.”