Investors are ignoring two major risks to the market, according to Vahan Janjigian, chief investment officer at Greenwich Wealth Management. The first is the U.S. national debt, he told CNBC’s ” Street Signs Asia ” last week. “I think another major risk that investors are ignoring is the massive amount of debt in the United States and the growing debt, and you know, perhaps more importantly, the cost of servicing that debt,” he said. “The U.S. can’t get spending under control. It keeps running larger deficits and funding them with ever more borrowing,” he added. Interest payments incurred on the country’s debt already exceed its spending on national defense, which is approaching $1 trillion, Janjigian noted, explaining that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight inflation have caused interest rates to rise. “The combination of greater amounts of debt at higher interest rates is simply not sustainable,” he said, adding that it’s “inevitable” that taxes will increase regardless of the outcome of the U.S. November election. “Higher taxes and pressures to reduce spending are not conducive to a bull market,” he concluded. Geopolitical tensions and weak oil prices are the second risk, Janjigian said. He has been “surprised” that the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict and weak oil prices haven’t elicited a bigger reaction from the market. “And perhaps the most surprising thing is that oil prices are still very weak, because these are, you know, two regions that are closely tied to oil, yet, you know, there seems to be enough oil on the market. And right now, the bigger concern is that demand for oil in China might be weaker than we thought,” said Janjigian. The International Energy Agency said in its recently monthly reports that global oil demand has been decelerating , adding that oil consumption in China — long the “engine of global oil demand growth” — contracted in April and May this year. In June, it added that Chinese oil demand contracted for a third consecutive month , driven by a slump in industrial activity. Demand is set to rise by less than one million barrels per day in 2024 and 2025, far slower than last year’s 2.1 million barrels per day, said the IEA. Stocks But Janjigian is still bullish on some stocks despite those risks. He named three that he said pay “very generous” dividends: IBM , Verizon and Pfizer — and he’s still continuing to add to his position in the pharmaceutical company. All three have been increasing their dividends every year for many years, he noted. According to FactSet, IBM currently offers a 3.3% dividend yield, Verizon gives 6.3% and Pfizer offers 5.7%. He says they are “substitutes for bonds” in some ways. “In some respects, you could argue that these stocks are really like bonds, because their stock prices are not going to, you know, fluctuate like something like Nvidia does,” said Janjigian. “Unlike bonds, however, the dividends grow and there is potential for capital appreciation.”
