Here’s how AI could influence the Fed’s economic outlook

Key Points

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are factoring rising labor productivity in their economic forecasts.
In a long-run “unbounded growth” scenario where AI is fully developed, up to 23% of workers may lose employment and labor productivity increases by as much as three to four times, according to a May 2025 research paper in the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The committee forecasts the federal funds rate settling around 3% over the long run, which may be a moderately accommodative posture.

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