Prediction markets swung sharply Friday after President Donald Trump said Kevin Warsh has risen to the top of his list to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
On Kalshi, Warsh’s odds jumped to as high as 40% from about 15% after Trump told the Wall Street Journal that Warsh is a top contender. Meanwhile, the implied probability of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed chair dropped below 60% briefly from 80% not long ago.
Asked directly whether Warsh was now his leading choice, Trump responded, “Yes, I think he is,” according to the paper. The comments quickly reverberated through prediction markets.
Trump did imply that Hassett is still very much in the running as well and the NEC director is still leading the race on Kalshi.
“I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both — I think the two Kevins are great,” Trump said.
Hassett had been the clear market favorite for months, but by Friday afternoon his odds dipped as investors priced in Trump’s latest signal.
Other candidates considered included current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman along with Rick Rieder, who runs the fixed income operation at money management giant BlackRock. They were the last of a group of 11 candidates considered for the post. Kalshi has essentially eliminated their chances for getting the top job.
Trump also on Friday reiterated his long-held view that the Fed chair should consult the president on rate policy. Trump has been at odds with the current chair, Jerome Powell, as he continued to urge for lower interest rates. The Fed has reduced the fed funds rates by three-quarters of a percentage point since September.
