What a week for markets. Global stocks posted their worst week since April as the heat around AI stocks began to burn.
On Thursday, the Nasdaq marked its wildest swing from green to red since President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ shocked equities back in April. And it reverberated around the world, with the Stoxx 600 touching a one-month low, Germany’s DAX sinking to levels not seen since June and Asian stocks closing deep in the red for the week.
What does such a volatile week for stocks and other asset classes mean for the trading week ahead?
A lot of the discussion around the CNBC International desk this week centered on what was causing investors to turn more cautious on some of the most-loved stocks of the year, as well as on certain asset classes that have been going gang-busters since the Trump administration returned to the White House.
In short, the market wanted to know — which tail is wagging the dog?
Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images
Tail 1: AI anxiety
Tail 2: Crypto concerns
It’s the “revenge of the old economy.” That’s the view from Carlyle’s Chief Strategy Officer Jeff Currie, who told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum in London that there is a link between the AI jitters and big moves seen in the crypto markets this week.
He said “people who own big tech also own crypto. They’re selling the scypto to fund the losses in big tech, and then it becomes a violent cycle to the downside.”
Tail 3: Delayed data
The delayed data — due to the U.S. shutdown — has done little to provide clarity on the next step for the Federal Reserve, after a rise in the unemployment rate in September and other downward revisions spooked investors.
Latest minutes from the FOMC also suggest there is a preference to skip a move in December, with Standard Chartered’s Steven Englander writing in a recent note that “we have shifted the December cut into Q1, most likely January.” He added that the “hawkish sentiment seems more intent than the dovish.”
Next week, expect to hear from a variety of ECB voices, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, Executive Board Member Frank Elderson and Board Member Piero Cipollone all taking the stage at different events in Europe. On Friday, Lagarde called on Europe to move from “merely being resilient to being genuinely strong.”
Tail 4: Fiscal feelings
All the volatility in the overall stock market may have provided some air cover for U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she counts down the final days to the budget announcement on Wednesday. Billed as the fiscal event of the year, the twists and turns so far have played out in the bond market. Ian King will be live from Westminster with all the details, in the meantime, CNBC’s UK Exchange newsletter breaks down how Reeves plans to tackle a £30 billion fiscal hole.
Britain’s Reeves paints a confusing picture as pressure builds from all sides
The easy answer is that it is most likely all these tails wagging market dogs, but with this many market forces at play, maybe the safest bet is that volatility looks set to continue into next week’s trade.
Global events this week:
Monday: Prosus earnings; ECB’s Lagarde speaks
Tuesday: Alibaba earnings, EasyJet earnings
Wednesday: U.S. GDP data, U.S. CPI data
Thursday: European Consumer Confidence data
Friday: France GDP data, German Inflation data