Key Points
- The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot showed a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026, the same as what it had projected at the end of last year.
- However, a closer look at the overall dot plot showed the balance of projections moved toward fewer reductions.
- “If you notice, the median didn’t change, but there was actually some movement toward — a meaningful amount of movement — toward fewer cuts by people,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting remarks.
