Europeans try to revive Ukraine war endgame as global focus shifts to Venezuela

European leaders are gathering in Paris on Tuesday as they attempt to revive interest in a peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine, just as Washington and the world’s focus has moved on to the Venezuela crisis.

The U.S.’ capture and arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and their subsequent transfer to the U.S. on criminal charges has garnered global media attention, increasing the risk that Washington’s interest in securing a Ukraine peace deal could wane.

European officials are keen to revive the momentum seen in pre-Christmas talks between the U.S. and its Ukrainian and Russian counterparts, which were aimed at securing an agreement around a 20-point peace plan to end almost four years of fighting.

The so-called “Coalition of the Willing” — a group of countries that say they’re willing to provide post-war security guarantees and peacekeeping forces to Ukraine — is set to meet in the French capital to discuss the elements of the peace plan that have been agreed so far, as well as the remaining stumbling blocks to a deal, namely, security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial concessions demanded by Moscow.

Russia rejects the idea of European nations providing security guarantees for Kyiv, or deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, and wants Ukraine to cede its eastern Donbas region to Moscow. Ukraine has said it’s willing to drop its NATO membership ambitions but needs guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.

There was already widespread concern in Europe that U.S. President Donald Trump could lose interest in Ukraine, and the pursuit of a peace deal, given his mercurial nature and previous seesawing on the war’s endgame, specifically regarding whether Ukraine can expect to come out of the war with its territorial integrity intact.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived at the Elysee Palace for the talks on Tuesday, which will also include European leaders, top European Commission officials and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly not attending due to the crisis in Venezuela.

Commenting on the gathering in Paris, Emily Thornberry, chair of the U.K. Foreign Affairs Select Committee, told CNBC that American involvement remains vital.

“The meeting today is supposed to be about the future of Ukraine, which is incredibly important, and we do need to have American security guarantees because what we don’t want is for there to be a peace which only lasts for a few months and when we’re not looking anymore, the Russians walk into Ukraine and take over,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“The only way we’re going to get a just and lasting peace is for the Americans to be involved. We’re not asking for boots on the ground, we’re asking for a security guarantee that means something,” she added.

Analysts have warned that Trump’s capture of Maduro does not bode well for Ukraine, not only because it’s a significant distraction for Washington, but because it sends a message to Moscow that the removal of a rival national leader, accused of criminality, is permitted — and particularly if that leader is deemed to be within a superpower’s geopolitical “sphere of influence.”

Moscow frequently describes Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “criminal,” without presenting evidence to back up its accusations.