President Donald Trump arrives at Palm Beach International Airport on October 31, 2025 in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump is spending the weekend at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida.
Samuel Corum | Getty Images
Democratic candidate Emily Gregory is projected to win a special election on Tuesday evening for a Florida state House seat representing a Palm Beach County district whose residents include President Donald Trump.
Gregory’s projected victory over Jon Maples, the 43-year-old Republican endorsed by Trump, would flip the House District 87 seat from GOP control.
The district includes Trump’s Palm Beach club, Mar-a-Lago, where he holds residency.
Gregory’s expected win was quickly touted by Democrats as yet another warning sign to Republicans for this fall’s midterm elections.
Since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, nearly 30 Republican candidates in elections for state legislatures have lost to Democrats, flipping control of those seats.
“If Democrats can win in Trump’s backyard, we sure as hell can win anywhere across the country. Onward to November!” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a post on the social media site X.
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams, in a statement, said, “Mar-a-Lago just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms.”
“A Trump +11 district in his own backyard shouldn’t be in play for Democrats, but tonight proves Republicans are vulnerable everywhere,” Williams said. “Gas prices are spiking, grocery costs are up, and families can’t get by – it’s clear voters at the polls are fed up with Republicans.”
“If Mar-a-Lago is vulnerable, imagine what’s possible this November,” she said. “Democrats are clearly on offense as we prepare for the most expansive midterm strategy ever down-ballot, with 650 seats in play. 2026 is shaping up to be an election for the history books.”
Gregory, a 40-year-old small business owner, had not sought elected office before this year. She is expected to seek election to a full two-year term in November.
The special election was held to fill the seat previously held by Mike Caruso, a Republican who resigned in August to become Palm Beach County clerk.
Caruso, who won District 87 in the 2024 election by nearly 20 percentage points, was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had unsuccessfully sought the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, which was won by Trump.
Trump had praised Maples at an event in Florida on Saturday, calling the candidate up on stage,
“I’m honored that the voters of District 87 have placed their trust in me,” Gregory, 40, said in a statement on Tuesday night.
“Tonight’s result sends a clear message that people want Florida to move in a new direction, one where leaders focus on lowering costs and standing up for working families,” Gregory said.
“Floridians are being squeezed by rising housing costs, insurance rates, and everyday expenses, and that’s what this campaign has always been about: making Florida more affordable and making sure our state works for the people who live here,” she said.
Maples’ campaign did not immediately reply to a request for comment by CNBC.
