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Zealand Pharma on Thursday outlined an ambitious five-year strategy for its anti-obesity portfolio Thursday, spotlighting how growing competition from smaller players is tightening the race for market leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly as more of these medicines near market entry.
The new strategy, “Metabolic Frontier 2030,” comes as Zealand shares have dropped 29% year to date as investors are betting the market will fragment, with fewer singular winners than they were 18 months ago at the peak of the weight loss drug frenzy.
Ahead of its Capital Markets Day on Thursday, the Danish drugmaker said it now targets five drug launches, at least 10 clinical pipeline programs and industry-leading cycle times by 2030.
The strategy will combine strategic partnerships, accelerated drug development, and expanded research capabilities to build the world’s most valuable metabolic health pipeline, Zealand Pharma said in a statement.
One of Zealand’s most promising drugs under development is petrelintide which targets the pancreatic amylin hormone — different from the GLP-1 gut hormone targeted by Novo’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound. The drug, developed in partnership with Roche, has shown more moderate side effects than current injectables in early-stage clinical trials.
Mid-stage data on petrelintide are due early next year, while data on its dual GLP-1 agonist called survodutide will read out throughout 2026.
Fewer standout winners
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate the market for weight loss drugs and have a head-start on their competition, having developed the only Food and Drug Administration approved anti-obesity drugs to date. But as the the market takes shape, more players are wanting in on the lucrative business which analysts predict could be worth as much as $150 billion annually by the start of next decade.
While Novo Nordisk shares are having their worst year ever in 2025, down 50% year to date, Eli Lilly has become an investor-favorite as the Indiana-based company’s Zepbound and Mounjaro has shown more pronounced weight loss than Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly has also taken the lead on U.S. new prescriptions.
On Thursday, Lilly released the first late-stage data on its next generation weight loss drug retatrutide. It works differently from existing injections and appears to be more effective as it targets three different appetite-regulating hormones, as opposed to one or two like Wegovy and Zepbound.
Lilly’s stock has held up better as investor see its pipeline as more likely to translate to financial returns, and the company also has a diverse porfolio that goes beyond diabetes and weight loss treatments.
Meanwhile, Zealand shares, like Novo’s peaked in mid-2024 but gains moderated as bets are also placed elsewhere. Only last month, it paused development of an GLP-1/GLP-2 dual agonist called dapiglutide, citing a crowded market for obesity drugs. Instead, Zealand indicated that it would focus resources to candidates with a greater potential for clinical differentiation.
Big Pharma names like AstraZeneca, Amgen and Pfizer are all hoping that their own drug candidates will take a slice out of Lilly and Novo’s market share, as are clinical-stage players like Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics.
The market credits Lilly but undervalues innovation elsewhere, according to Morningstar’s Karen Andersen. “While we see Lilly holding more than 50% global share for the foreseeable future, we think its share will stabilize as Novo and other competitors launch next-generation drugs,” she wrote in a November note. “Consensus fails to appreciate these drugs’ potential.”
Zealand Pharma shares have fallen by nearly a third in 2025
Separately, Zealand announced an agreement with Chinese biotech firm OTR Therapeutics to develop oral small molecule treatments for metabolic diseases. Under the deal, OTR will receive $20 million up front, with an additional $10 million if certain conditions are met, as well as up to $2.5 billion related to development, regulatory and commercial milestones.
UBS analysts called the partnership “an interesting move.”
“Ahead of a catalyst rich 2026 with P3 survodutide trial and P2 petrelintide readout due, we will look for expectations for these readouts, commercialisation strategy and any colour on potential pricing for survodutide, and how Zealand sees as potential differentiation for OTR’s small molecule drugs versus other oral GLP-1s that are already close to market,” the analysts said.
Zealand also said it will open a new research site in Boston that combines its peptide drug expertise with AI‑driven drug discovery.
