CNBC’s The China Connection newsletter: What’s next after a 10-year ‘experiment’ with U.S.-China competition

This report is from this week’s CNBC’s The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what’s driving the world’s second-largest economy. You can subscribe here.

For someone who’s witnessed the ups and downs of U.S.-China tensions since the 1990s, James Zimmerman is unexpectedly hopeful about 2026.

This year, he’s back for a fifth term as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, whose members include Boeing and Cargill. His first stint came in 2007 and 2008, when Beijing hosted its first Olympic Games, and the financial crisis hit much of the world. He later served again in 2015 and 2016, as populist movements rose globally and gave Donald Trump his first term as U.S. President.

Fast forward a decade, and U.S. businesses have endured everything from the pandemic to escalating tariffs. But the past decade of what Zimmerman calls “experimenting with competition” could now give way to something new, with Trump expected to visit China in April.

Here are the highlights of our conversation, with responses condensed for clarity:

Why are you staying engaged at such a high level, after nearly 30 years in China?

The reason I’m involved is because I think this is a very important year.

2026 is important, not just because [it’s] the 250th anniversary of the U.S., but the U.S. and China have had 10 years of experimenting with competition, experimenting with calls for decoupling and de-risking.

Has that worked? Not really. So it’s now time to go back and, in a way that may be visionary, to get us back on track to have ongoing dialogues, ongoing engagement, because I think, at the end of the day, that will be in the best interest of the U.S. and China.

Are many U.S. companies decoupling from China?

No. We’re seeing an evolution. People are starting to adjust. For many sectors, China continues to be a critical market. But it’s also an essential part of the global supply chain.

American companies are adjusting to this new normal within the U.S.-China relationship. But there has been some diversifying, and that’s a healthy strategy that companies are looking at, but we are not seeing wholesale decoupling at all.

It’s important that we have senior–level meetings that bring some clarity, some certainty, some continuity to the relationship.

Dialogue matters — even the smallest, positive signals, at the presidential level, on engagement are very, very important. Regular, ongoing engagement helps reduce any potential misunderstandings and lowers the risk of unexpected policy shocks, like the back-and-forth over tariffs.

What kind of opportunity do U.S. businesses have in China as domestic competition rises?

We have our white paper, which, in a way, allows us to engage with the Chinese government to seek changes that are positive.

Protection of intellectual property is not just an issue for foreign companies. It’s also an issue for Chinese companies.

Both sides need to tone down the national security issues and not view every slight as a national security matter.

We can’t have an environment where every foreigner is targeted as a potential threat. And that goes both ways: when Chinese companies go to the U.S., we can’t take the view that it’s a threat to the communities they want to operate in.

Is the CEO of the China operations losing influence on headquarters in the U.S.?

It’s something that needs further attention post-pandemic. But that’s something that is just a circumstance, especially given what took place during the pandemic, when travel came to a halt.

But when you look at AmCham, the U.S.-China Business Council and the National Committee for U.S.-China Relations, there’s now increased interest in making sure CEOs, academic leaders, as well as congressional leaders, travel to [China to] understand what the environment is all about.

We try to encourage more people-to-people exchanges. I’m going to be out and about in the community, emphasizing the importance of education as well as the arts. For example, I’m going to a concert at the Juilliard School in Tianjin.

What’s on your agenda at AmCham China for 2026?

In some respects, we’re focused on April when President Trump is planning to come to China. We’re hopeful that AmCham will be able to play a role in that. There is a focus on that, and I’m sure there’s going to be a lot of work leading up to that visit.

There’ll be some agreements, some understanding, maybe a memorandum of understanding that may come out of that.

We’re not expecting a grand bargain. There just isn’t enough time. It was last summer, and we were in the middle of a trade war. And only since October, President Xi, as well as President Trump, met in South Korea, have we started a process [around] let’s meet, let’s talk, let’s keep engaging.

So I think we’re on the right track, but we’ll just have to see the progress between now and April. But we’re optimistic the signals will come out positive. And again, any level of confidence that can be received from those meetings, I think, is very important to the business community.

A lot of President Trump’s predecessors were very visionary about what they viewed as the future of U.S.-China relations.

And so, this year, we’re hoping that President Trump will also be visionary and seek to move the relationship forward in a way that mutually benefits both the United States and China, its companies, consumers, workers and farmers.

Eurasia Group’s Xiaomeng Lu explained why China’s tech competition with the U.S. remains intense, but argued that tech co-dependence may expand in 2026, driven by easing export controls, cross-border deals, and the global uptake of Chinese open-source AI models.

John Lam, head of China and Hong Kong property research at UBS Investment Bank, explained why he sees a 10% decline in property prices and new home sales in China for 2026.

Evan Feigenbaum from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Venezuela isn’t a core interest for China, but if the U.S. were to launch a second strike or a full-scale invasion, China would make “a lot of hay rhetorically about international law.”

China condemns U.S. attack on Venezuela. Beijing said it was “deeply shocked” by the U.S. strike on Venezuela Saturday and called for the release of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

BYD tops Tesla worldwide. The Chinese automaker officially sold more battery-powered electric cars than Tesla in 2025 — at 2.26 million units.

Chinese companies hit Vegas. Many Chinese humanoid robotic and consumer electronics companies are in Las Vegas this week to showcase their products at the Consumer Electronics Show.

Onshore Chinese stocks edged higher Wednesday, holding near four-year highs as Beijing continues to push development of its artificial intelligence sector.

Goldman Sachs expects China’s equity rally to continue into 2026, though at a slower pace. The bank forecasts the MSCI China Index will rise 20%, while the CSI 300 is seen gaining 12%, after last year’s 20% to 30% advance driven largely by valuation expansion.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid over 1%, pressured by losses in technology and energy shares. Alibaba fell 4%, BYD was down 3.38% while PetroChina retreated 3.15%.

Jan. 8: Chinese AI company Z.ai, formerly Zhipu AI, to list in Hong Kong

Jan. 9: CPI and PPI for December

Jan. 14: Trade data for December (expected)