This picture taken on March 26, 2026 shows an oil tanker unloading crude oil at a port in Yantai, in China’s eastern Shandong province.
CN-STR | Afp | Getty Images
Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
On March 11, President Donald Trump said that the Iran war could end “very soon,” adding that “Any time I want it to end, it will end.”
However, as the war enters its fifth week and reports emerge of potential U.S. ground operations, the timeline for any potential ceasefire or resolution remains as uncertain as ever.
That uncertainty is beginning to show up in markets — particularly in oil — where industry participants are sounding serious alarms about the fallout of a prolonged conflict.
What you need to know today
The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East, according to The Washington Post, which cited U.S. officials.
The potential ground operation would reportedly fall short of a full-scale invasion but could involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, the officials were quoted as saying.
In comments to the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump also said he wants to “take the oil in Iran,” including potentially taking over Kharg Island — a major Iranian oil terminal.
Together, the reports signal a possible escalation in the Iran -war — the fallout of which has already rattled markets and raised fears of broader supply chain disruptions and higher global prices.
U.S. crude prices have surged over 50% since late February, with Brent up more than 55%. Oil executives and analysts warn that the Iran war disruption is already bigger than the markets understand and prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon.
Industry leaders also say the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route now being impeded by the war, must reopen by mid-April or supply disruptions could worsen significantly.
In the face of this uncertainty, companies and other organizations are preparing for a world in which the conflict — and subsequent jolt to crude prices — becomes a long-term challenge, affecting everything from travel planning to mail delivery.
U.S. equity futures fell Sunday evening on the latest reports of a possible ground operation, ahead of a holiday-shortened week of trading. Asia-Pacific markets also fell at the open Monday after U.S. markets closed out another negative week, as investors showed signs of headline fatigue from the conflict.
— Dylan Butts
And finally…
Beijing’s surprise intervention on Meta’s Manus rattles tech founders, VCs eyeing ‘China shedding’
Tech circles from Silicon Valley to Shenzhen buzzed when Meta acquired Manus, a Singaporean AI startup with Chinese roots, for $2 billion late last year.
For Chinese founders striving to build products that could rival American peers, the deal felt like validation that an intricate offshore structure – known as “Singapore washing,” in which companies relocate to the city-state – was the answer to circumventing scrutiny from both Beijing and Washington.
Within days, China’s surprise intervention in the deal quickly shattered that hope, as Beijing stepped up efforts to discourage Chinese AI founders from moving their businesses offshore.
— Anniek Bao