CNBC Daily Open: Trump’s social media posts crush hopes of an Israel-Iran ceasefire

Hopes of a quick ceasefire between Israel and Iran were dashed by several social media posts from U.S. President Donald Trump. As he took an early departure from the Group of Seven summit, Trump said it “certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire” and that he was involved in something “much bigger than that.”

What’s bigger than a ceasefire? An escalation in conflict on the prospect of the U.S. joining the hostilities in the Middle East. Trump, on his social media platform Truth Social, threatened Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he is an “easy target” and wants him to “surrender.”

Trump’s posts on Truth Social brought U.S. stocks lower and caused oil prices, which were on the retreat Monday, to shoot up more than 4% during Tuesday’s trading session. A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales report in May also added to the heavy sentiment in markets.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting will conclude Wednesday. While central bankers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged, the committee will release updated projections of where they see rates going. Chair Jerome Powell will also answer questions from the media at this press conference. All of those are market-moving events — so it’s a relief, at least, they come from official communiques.

Trump weighs strike on Iran
A U.S. military strike against Iran is one of the options Trump is considering, after meeting with his top national security advisors on Tuesday afternoon, current and former administration officials told NBC News. Earlier in the day, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. knows “exactly” where the Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “hiding,” and demanded “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

Markets fear escalation of conflict
U.S. stocks retreated Tuesday as Trump’s rhetoric on Iran ramped up. The S&P 500 fell 0.84%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.91%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost 0.85% as regional bourses slipped. Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 index, however, touched an all-time high during the day, though it pared some gains.

U.S. passes landmark crypto bill
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed the GENIUS Act, a landmark crypto bill that establishes federal guardrails, including full reserve backing, monthly audits, and anti-money laundering compliance, for U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins. It also opens the door to a range of issuers, including banks, fintechs, and major retailers looking to launch their own stablecoins or integrate them into existing payment systems.

Oil supply chains might get strained
The CEOs of TotalEnergies, Shell, and EnQuest told CNBC on Tuesday that further attacks on critical energy infrastructure in Iran could have serious consequences for the global supply and prices of oil. Some shipowners are already steering clear of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, according to the world’s largest shipping association, reflecting a growing sense of unease as the Israel-Iran conflict rages on.

Revenue-less Regencell worth billions
Shares of Regencell, an early-stage, Hong Kong-based bioscience company with no revenue, spiked 30% Tuesday, rocketed 280% Monday, and have risen more than 58,000% in 2025 to hit $36 billion in market value. Regencell — which develops traditional Chinese medicine formula — is the latest example of a speculative international stock attracting attention during summer trading.

[PRO] Global stocks will reign: Investors
The era of U.S. exceptionalism might be coming to an end. Not only have global stocks vastly outperformed those in America year to date, investors also think they will be the best-performing asset class over the next five years, according to the results of Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey.

The Fed is likely to keep rates the same but give a forecast that moves markets. What to expect

While any immediate movement on interest rates seems improbable, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday, will feature important signals that still could move markets.

Among the biggest things to watch will be whether Federal Open Market Committee members stick with their previous forecast of two rate cuts this year, how they see inflation trending, and any reaction from Chair Jerome Powell to what has become a concerted White House campaign for easier monetary policy.

As things stand heading into the meeting, markets are pricing in the next cut to come in September, which would be the one-year anniversary of a surprisingly aggressive half-percentage-point reduction the FOMC instituted amid concerns over the labor market. The committee added two more quarter-point moves by the end of the year and has been on hold since.