CNBC Daily Open: The S&P could continue its ascent despite pausing

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Other than the Nasdaq, markets mostly fell 
U.S. markets were mixed Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly but were close to the flatline. However, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.18%. Asia-Pacific shares mostly traded higher Wednesday, lifted by investor sentiment over blockbuster listings by Tokyo Metro and China Resources Beverage.

Red hot debut by Tokyo Metro 
Tokyo Metro shares rocketed almost 45% after listing publicly on Wednesday. The Japanese subway operator’s initial public offering attracted 348.6 billion yen ($2.3 billion), making it Japan’s biggest IPO in six years. Tokyo Metro is a “cash cow,” said Jesper Koll, expert director at financial services firm Monex Group. 

IMF revised China’s growth downwards 
The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for China’s growth this year to 4.8% from 5% in July, according to its World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday. The IMF expects China’s gross domestic product to increase by a slower 4.5% in 2025 as the country’s property sector might continue weighing down the economy.  

TSMC denies supplying Huawei with chips 
The Information, a tech-focused publication, reported last week that the Commerce Department was probing whether TSMC had been making AI or smartphone chips for Huawei, in violation of U.S. export rules. The company disputed the report, telling CNBC on Wednesday that “TSMC is a law-abiding company and we are committed to complying with all applicable rules and regulations.” 

[PRO] Growth or value stocks?
Companies that focus on growth channel most of their revenue – and loans – back into their business to expand operations. Hence, growth stocks tend to do better when the economy is expanding and interest rates are low – the current environment in the U.S. However, some strategists think value stocks might be a better play now.

The S&P is up more than 22% year to date and has broken multiple record closes on its way to that peak. 

Still, the broad-based index’s ascent has slowed in recent days. On Tuesday, the S&P ticked down 0.05% for its first back-to-back losing day since early September.  

On the rally pause, Barclays wrote: “We now recommend moving to the sidelines. We think investors are likely to as well; the risk rally should stall for the next few weeks.” 

When a fast-moving vehicle stalls, however, it could still rev back to life. Notably, all major U.S. indexes are trading above both their 50- and 200-day moving average, suggesting they possess forward momentum. 

Indeed, UBS Wealth Management this month upgraded its rating on U.S. stocks to attractive from neutral. “We think a ‘no landing’ scenario is positive for US and global equities,” said UBS GWM Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele.  

There are “signs that the long-run trend growth rate may be higher than previously estimated,” added Haefele. 

The International Monetary Fund also thinks growth in the U.S. will remain robust. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF increased its estimate for U.S. GDP in 2024 to 2.8% from its 2.6% forecast in July, while raising its 2025 growth forecast for the country. It’s the only advanced economy that had its economic trajectory revised upwardsfor both years by the IMF . 

The U.S. has its consumers to thank for that. “The resilience of consumption is largely the result of robust increases in real wages,” the IMF wrote in its report. 

With the looming presidential election and high stock valuations, the path ahead for markets may be rocky for now. But the S&P might persist in scaling the rocky ridges of an ever-ascending mountain range.   

— CNBC’s Brian Evans, Hakyung Kim, Pia Singh and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.