CNBC Daily Open: South Korea’s markets power through troubles

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

All eyes on U.S. jobs report
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December will be released later Friday. Economists expect it to show an increase of 155,000 jobs, down from 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, however, think both numbers will be worse than the consensus forecast.

U.S. markets dark, Europe markets close higher
U.S. markets were closed on Thursday in honor of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who died in late December at age 100. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index added 0.42% after starting the day in negative territory. Denmark’s Moller-Maersk fell 5.8% amid a wider sell-off in shipping stocks after a tentative labor deal was stuck by U.S. dockworkers.

Fed governor thinks December’s cut should be ‘final step’
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed’s December interest rate cut should be its “final step in the policy recalibration phase.” That suggests that Bowman, who is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, might oppose further cuts this year. Other Fed officials who spoke this week were more optimistic about lowering rates.

Ubisoft explores ‘strategic and capitalistic options’
French video game publisher Ubisoft said on Thursday that it’s appointed “leading advisors” to review options “to extract the best value for stakeholders.” Ubisoft’s founding Guillemot family and Tencent were reported in October to be considering a takeover of the firm. With Ubisoft shares at 10-year lows, the company faces questions over its future.

[PRO] Sweet spot for jobs report
The U.S. economy is poised in a delicate position between growth and inflation. The jobs report, out Friday, demonstrates the difficulty of this balancing act. Too hot, and Treasury yields might rise; too cold, and fears of an economic slowdown could halt stocks, Goldman Sachs said. But the S&P 500 could rally if the report comes in at just the right range.

South Korea can’t catch a break. In the past month, the country’s been placed under martial law, had its sitting — and stand-in — president impeached, is at its second acting president (so far) and suffered a tragic plane crash.

How have those events affected the Korean market?

Going by the Kospi index: not much. The index, which tracks all common stocks listed on the Korean Stock Exchange, is now higher than it was on Dec. 3, when impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.

Its resilience can be traced to Korea’s political history and the Bank of Korea’s swift — and perhaps serendipitous — actions.

Yoon and Han Duck-soo are only the latest two presidential figures to be impeached in Korea’s history. Prior to them, Roh Moo-hyun was impeached in 2004 (though the court overturned it), while Park Geun-hye was impeached in 2016 and removed from office the next year.

“Presidential impeachments aren’t unprecedented in Korea, and the country’s equities, at least, ultimately fared quite well during the most recent one in 2016/2017,” Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, said.

Uncertainties caused by the Korea’s past two impeachments “have subsided within three to six months,” Soohyung Lee, Monetary Policy Board member at the Bank of Korea, told CNBC on Jan. 2, so “it’s possible that the political turmoil may not take as much of a toll on the country’s economy.”

The Bank of Korea’s actions also seemed to calm markets.

Within the day of Yoon lifting martial law, the BOK announced emergency measures to calm markets and prevent volatility. Likewise, a surprise 25 basis point rate cut by the BOK at its November meeting, enacted before Yoon declared martial law in December, could have cushioned the blow.

Internal factors might not be the biggest threat to the Korean economy and markets in the year ahead. The downside risks posed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs are more worrisome, especially for an export-driven country like Korea, Lee said.

Korea’s recent troubles demonstrate that when one branch of government fails, other institutions can still prop up a country and its economy — but it’s much harder to deal with the governments of others.

— CNBC’s Lim Hui Jie and Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.