CNBC Daily Open: Markets hold breath as Trump’s Iran deadline nears

Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Suspense is building ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, or face attacks on its power plants and bridges. 

Trump has delayed this deadline before. However, on Monday, he reiterated his threats, signaling a greater willingness to follow through.

Will Washington’s threats strengthen its hand at the negotiating table? Are we in for another Trump TACO? The outcome is uncertain. But here’s how markets are reacting to the approaching deadline. 

Trump said Monday that the U.S. had received Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal, but described it as “not good enough,” ahead of the approaching Tuesday deadline and threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure. 

Still, Trump also struck a more measured tone in some comments on Monday, telling reporters that Tehran was acting as an “active, willing participant”  in negotiations.

“They would like to be able to make a deal. I can’t say any more than that,” he said.

Meanwhile, Axios reported Monday that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators were discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.

Those developments were enough to sustain cautious investor optimism on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose for a fourth session on Monday, as investors weighed the possibility of de-escalation.

However, oil markets were less positive. Prices edged higher after Trump doubled down on his threats against Iran, saying the U.S. would decimate every bridge and power plant in Iran by midnight EDT (0400 GMT) Wednesday, over a period of four hours.

U.S. futures were little changed on Monday night as investors continued to digest new developments. 

Beyond geopolitics, momentum in artificial intelligence remains a key market driver. Broadcom expanded its chip partnership with Google and Anthropic, underscoring surging demand for AI infrastructure. 

In more dramatic news, OpenAI on Monday sent a letter to the attorneys general of California and Delaware, urging them to investigate “improper and anti-competitive behavior” by xAI founder Elon Musk and his associates, as a high-profile trial between the two sides nears.

— Dylan Butts 

Offbeat Wall Street research firm says it sent an analyst to Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they learned

As the world’s oil traders parsed satellite images and official statements for clues on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm seems to have taken a different approach: It says it sent an analyst directly into the conflict zone.

Citrini Research, which issued a market-shaking bearish call on artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it dispatched an analyst to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, where the person traveled by boat to observe shipping activity firsthand amid escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S. What the analyst claims to have found challenges the dominant narrative gripping global markets that the critical oil artery is effectively shut.

Instead, the analyst, whom the firm did not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that vessels are still moving through the strait, with traffic picking up in recent days to roughly 15 ships per day, according to the firm’s report posted on Substack. While far below normal levels, the flow suggests the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute.

“Tankers passing through four or five a day, completely dark on AIS. The volume, they said, is higher than what the data suggests, and it’s been accelerating in the past couple days through the Qeshm channel,” Citrini’s post said.

— Yun Li