CNBC Daily Open: Flying blind in markets and the economy

U.S. markets had their worst day since Oct. 10. That marks a sharp reversal for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which shed 1.65% to settle at 47,457.22, a day after it closed above 48,000 for the first time. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 1.66% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.29%.

The slump in stocks can partly be traced to a turnaround in sentiment regarding artificial intelligence. Tech behemoths such as Nvidia, Broadcom and Oracle slumped, with the last losing more than one-third in value since it rocketed 36% in September.

Investors, it seems, are growing worried over the high valuations of tech names, as well as the gigantic amount of capital expenditure they are committing to — with some, like Oracle, having to take on debt to fulfil those obligations.

Uncertainty over an interest rate cut in December is also putting a downer on Wall Street. It’s a coin toss as to whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy then, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That’s a huge difference from a month ago, when traders were pricing in a 95.5% chance of a December cut.

Not having October’s employment and inflation numbers, and possibly never getting them, means the Fed lacks visibility into the state of the economy — and whether it should try to support the labor market or continue reining in inflation.

After all, flying blind makes it hard to see where you’ll land. As of now, that applies both to the Fed and investors trying to navigate the still-hazy ambitions of tech companies.

Wall Street cools on Oracle’s buildout plans as debt concerns mount: ‘AI sentiment is waning’

Two months ago, Oracle’s stock soared 36% to a record after the company blew away investors with its forecast for cloud infrastructure revenue. Since then, the company has lost one-third of its value, more than wiping out those gains.

The mood of late has turned, with investors questioning whether the AI market ran too far, too fast and whether OpenAI can live up to its $300 billion commitment to Oracle over five years. Of the big cloud companies in the GPU business, Oracle is expected to generate the least amount of free cash flow, said Jackson Ader, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

— Seema Mody