Voters walk to cast their ballots during early voting in the presidential election at a polling station at the C. Blythe Andrews, Jr. Public Library in Tampa, Florida, U.S., November 1, 2024.
Octavio Jones | Reuters
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Just 12,000 jobs added in U.S. in October.
The U.S. economy added 12,000 jobs in October, missing the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 by a wide margin and marking the weakest level of jobs creation since December 2020. However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the number was affected by hurricanes which hit the country and the Boeing strike in October.
Asia markets climb ahead of China’s parliament meeting
U.S. stocks rallied Friday to kick off November, as traders shrugged off a disappointing jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.69%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.41% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as investors watch the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, and China’s monetary policy meeting starting Monday.
China stimulus will depend on U.S. election
Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday, when the standing committee of the National People’s Congress is due to wrap up a five-day meeting. “The size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10~20% bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a Harris win,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said last week.
Harris gains ground in Iowa
Iowa is not a state that most pollsters had predicted to break for Kamala Harris. However, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll revealed that the vice president leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% among likely voters, a seven points shift in September. Iowa holds six electoral votes.
[PRO] Congress makeup may decide stocks performance
While all eyes are on who will occupy the Oval Office after election night on November 5 (November 6 in Asia time). A split or united Congress could instead hold the key to how stocks perform going forward.
A split U.S. House of Representatives and Senate suggest the status quo could continue, rather than a more severe overhaul of tax and spending policies that could come from either a Democratic or Republican sweep.
The bottom line
It’s an overused saying, but “the calm before the storm” probably is the best way to describe the start of the week and the day leading up to the U.S. election.
After a packed weekend of closing arguments from both parties in critical swing states, the U.S. now stands on the brink of Election Day, with two very different candidates and two very different positions on a swathe of issues.
Will we find out the results on election night, or will it be sometime later? What will be the margin of victory be, and most importantly, will the uncertainty we saw in 2020 repeat itself again?
Beyond both presidential candidates, it is important to remember that the U.S. president does not operate in a vacuum. Control of both the House and the Senate will also determine the ability of the president to carry out his or her campaign pledges.
For investors, it’s like the final moments before a plane lands.
Many would likely be in a wait and see mode before plunging back into the markets. With both candidates locked in a dead heat, trying to predict the winner, and where markets will go is really like taking a shot in the dark.
Furthermore, while November 5 seems like the huge red circle on the calendar everyone is so focused on, the world still goes on after that date. The Fed’s next two-day meeting kicks off Nov. 6-7, with a Reuters poll of economists expecting a 25 basis point cut.