CNBC Daily Open: Bullish sentiment and broadening rally – plenty to like about markets

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Breather from rally
U.S. markets fell Monday, weighed down by a drop in semiconductor stocks and a 8.1% slide in UnitedHealth. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost 0.8% as sectors diverged in performance. Tech stocks fell 6.36%, while telecoms stocks rose 1.97%. Separately, euro zone industrial production increased 1.8% between July and August, according to Eurostat.

Banks beat expectations
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup beat earnings and revenue estimates for their third quarter. Goldman was the standout performer: Its profit jumped 45% from a year earlier. Year on year, Bank of America experienced a 12% drop in net income and Citigroup’s net income fell 8.6%.

ASML slumps
Shares of semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML plunged 16% on a downbeat earnings report. For 2025, the Netherlands-based company thinks net sales will come in at the lower half of its previous projection. ASML missed expectations on net bookings by 3 billion euros for the September quarter, though net sales beat expectations.

Israel might not hit oil facilities
After Israel reportedly told the U.S. it’s not planning to strike Iran’s oil facilities, prices for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures fell more than 4%. Earlier this week, OPEC cut its forecast for daily oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.9 million barrels per day from 2 million bpd. That was the third consecutive time this year it’s lowered expectations.

[PRO] S&P 500 at 6,400?
Stocks seem unstoppable. Two years into a bull market, the S&P 500 has been constantly hitting new closing highs. History suggests the bull tends to stall, or at least trip on itself, in its third year. But UBS thinks the S&P can buck the trend in 2025 and soar to 6,400, implying an upside of 10% from Tuesday’s close.

Despite markets falling Tuesday, there’s still plenty to like about their current state.

Weighed down by ASML’s 16% dive and a report by Bloomberg on potential AI-chip export controls, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell 4.7% and 5.2% respectively. That gave the VanEck Semiconductor ETF its worst day since Sept. 3. As a result, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.01%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which just yesterday was basking in its accomplishment at closing above the 43,000 level for the first time, fell 0.75% to dip into the 42,000 territory again. UnitedHealth’s 8.1% drop dragged down the Dow.

Last, the S&P 500 retreated 0.76%.

Still, investors are the most bullish in four years, according to the October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. They’re also optimistic about the economy: 74% investors believe the U.S. will avoid a recession.

Anticipation of more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and hopes that Beijing will unleash more stimulus to boost its economy are driving up investor sentiment, according to Michael Hartnett, an investment strategist at BofA.

Indeed, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who’s a member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, noted that the central bank is “a long way from where [rates are] likely to settle.” That means “the decisions that are really in front of us are ones about how quickly to adjust towards that level” – not whether to keep rates high in light of how strong recent economic data has been.

Another positive sign for markets is how the S&P and Dow hit all-time highs on Monday, but the Nasdaq was still a few percentage points away from its peak. “This subtle divergence is technical evidence that the market has been moving away from the Magnificent Seven mega-caps,” wrote Piper Sandler’s chief market technician Craig Johnson.

– CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han and Alex Harring contributed to this story.