A traders works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., Jan. 2, 2026.
Jeenah Moon | Reuters
It’s barely a week into 2026 and already, the year is making its intentions clear.
After the U.S. military strike on Venezuela and capture of its leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Saturday, global markets reacted with notable calm: Most bourses across Asia, Europe and the U.S. edged higher while defense and energy stocks rallied. World leaders, meanwhile, moved quickly to stake out their positions.
But questions abound, particularly concerning Venezuela’s oil. The country holds the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, yet it remains far too early to assess whether the U.S.-Venezuela tensions could open the door for U.S. oil companies to invest in the South American country. Chevron is the only U.S. oil major currently operating in the country, and questions surrounding governance, sanctions and political legitimacy remain.
And the effects are rippling well beyond Caracas. U.S. President Donald Trump has again turned his attention to Greenland, while Maduro’s arrest has reignited debates over international law and sovereignty, bringing China’s Taiwan saber-rattling into focus.
After a volatile 2025 marked by persistent geopolitical shocks, the early days of the new year suggest continuity rather than relief. So buckle up, folks — this might be another wild ride.
What you need to know today
Maduro pleads not guilty. The ousted Venezuelan leader and his wife appeared for the first time in a New York federal court Monday stateside to face drug trafficking charges. Maduro said that he had been “kidnapped” by U.S. forces and was a “prisoner of war.”
U.S. markets rally in Venezuela aftermath. On Monday stateside, all three key benchmarks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average clocking a new all-time high in the session. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.94% higher.
Trump’s comments raise alarm in Denmark. The U.S. President reiterated Monday that he wants to acquire Greenland for “national security.” The remarks sent Denmark, which is responsible for the defense of the self-governing Danish territory, into a “full crisis mode.”
Expensive road ahead in Venezuela for oil companies. Chevron has the advantage of rebuilding the country’s energy sector as it is the only U.S. major operating there, Wall Street analysts said. But it would require roughly $53 billion of investment over the next 15 years to just maintain crude oil production level of 1.1 million barrels per day Rystad Energy said.
[PRO] Where Vanguard sees higher risk-adjusted returns. The company likes a 40/60 portfolio for the new year, which is good for investors focusing on the short-to-medium term, said Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Vanguard’s global head of portfolio construction and chief economist, Americas.
And finally…
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) and Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Yvan Gil shake hands before their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on May 12, 2025.
FLORENCE LO / POOL / AFP
China decries U.S. action in Venezuela — even as it guards billions at stake
China reacted swiftly to the U.S. military attack on Venezuela on Saturday night, expressing shock and condemnation. The situation raises concerns for Beijing because of China’s exposure in the country, said Zichen Wang, a research fellow at the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.
Chinese companies, mostly state-owned, have invested $4.8 billion in Venezuela over the last two decades, according to data compiled by the U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group.
“China is likely to be wary of being dragged into this conflict, as Venezuela carries limited economic significance for China and little geopolitical proximity,” said Yue Su, principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
— Evelyn Cheng
