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ASML reported orders that smashed past expectations while 2026 sales guidance was also ahead of estimates as AI demand continues to support the Dutch chip giant’s business.
Bookings, one of the most closely-watched metrics from investors, came in at 13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, ahead of analyst expectations of 6.32 billion euros, according to Visible Alpha, as cited by Reuters. This was a record quarter for orders, according to ASML’s finance chief Roger Dassen.
ASML also announced a 12-billion-euro share buyback plan to be executed by Dec. 31, 2028.
The company said it expects net sales in the current quarter of between 8.2 billion and 8.9 billion euros and total sales for 2026 to come in at between 34 billion euros and 39 billion euros. The mid-point is above analyst expectations of 35.1 billion.
ASML previously said it does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025. ASML’s forecast would represent growth, appearing to mark an improvement in its prior commentary on 2026.
Here’s how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the fourth quarter:
- Net sales: 9.7 billion euros ($11.6 billion) versus 9.6 billion euros expected
- Net profit: 2.84 billion euros vs 3.01 billion euros expected
AI tailwinds
ASML, which makes tools required to manufacture the most advanced chips in the world, is experiencing several tailwinds, driven by the AI infrastructure boom, that have pushed its shares up nearly 30% this year alone.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) this month posted another record rise in profit in the fourth quarter, adding to the narrative that demand for AI chips and infrastructure will continue. TSMC, a customer of ASML, is the world’s biggest chipmaker and manufactures semiconductors for companies from Nvidia to AMD.
Meanwhile, there is a shortage of memory semiconductors, causing an unprecedented jump in prices of the component, with some in the electronics industry expecting the crunch to continue through 2027. Analysts forecast that the world’s biggest memory makers including Samsung and SK Hynix will increase chipmaking capacity in the coming year or two, which would mean these firms will purchase more ASML machines.
For example, Barclays said in a note this month that it expects SK Hynix to take 12 of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines in 2026.
ASML’s CFO said that its customers have been “more positive in their assessment of the medium-term market perspectives.”
“I think it’s primarily on the basis of the more robust view that they have when it comes to demand for AI, which seems to be more sustainable from their vantage point,” Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview. “That recognition has led some of our customers to really invest in capacity and gear up their plans for medium-term capacity expansion.”
China in focus
Investors are looking out for any commentary on China, a market where ASML is not allowed to ship its most advanced machines due to export restrictions. The Dutch semiconductor giant said last year that it expects sales in China to decline significantly in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025.
ASML said it expects China revenue to account for 20% of its total sales in 2026. Last year, China accounted for 33% of ASML’s net system sales.
