China’s Laopu Gold shares fall despite forecast of tripling profits

Shares of Laopu Gold fell to their lowest levels since May 20 after the Chinese jewelry upstart forecasted its net profit for the first half of 2025 would increase between 279% and 288% year over year, or between RMB 2.23 billion and RMB 2.28 billion ($311.11 million to $318.08 million).

The stock, which is up 203.07% for the year to date, rose nearly 4% in early trade, but pared back gains as investors locked in their profits.

While shares of Laopu Gold are on course for their ninth straight session of decline, they have skyrocketed by more than 2,000% since their listing last year.

The Hong Kong-listed company also reported in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Sunday that its projected revenue for the first half of the year would increase between 241% and 255% from the same period last year.

Concerns over rising gold prices and market downgrades in earning expectations have caused the stock to fall from its peak in early July, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report on Monday.

Citi analysts also attributed the retreat in Laopu’s share price to a reset in market expectations and “unwinding fund flow,” adding that the stock appears relatively cheap.

However, consulting firm Oliver Wyman said that Laopu’s earnings are less tied to fluctuations in gold prices, unlike traditional jewelers, due to the designs of its products, which blend ancient craftsmanship with contemporary appeal.

The Chinese jewelry brand was founded in 2009 and is popular among younger consumers for its distinctive designs, including ancient coin pendants and lotus motifs.

“We believe Laopu’s current valuation has become more attractive in the past three weeks despite the company’s intact growth story”, Nomura analysts said in a report.

The Beijing-based company attributed the increase in its top and bottom lines to the brand’s expansion online and through offline boutiques.

Laopu has boutiques in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and opened its first overseas store at Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands in June.

Laopu’s success contrasts with more tepid consumer spending in China.

Affluent Chinese are more negative on the economy than they were during the pandemic, according to a survey released last week by Oliver Wyman. The report found that many respondents are shifting their spending away from luxury goods toward experiences, such as travel.

Similarly, Labubu-maker Pop Mart had issued an upbeat profit forecast for the first half of 2025 earlier this month, but initially dropped on the news. Pop Mart shares are up by 175.74% year-to-date.

In contrast, shares of Chinese sportswear company Anta have increased by 17.15% so far this year. The company’s said in a filing that it achieved “mid-single digit positive growth” for house brand products and “high-single digit positive growth” for Fila-branded products for the first half of this year.