Cautious Chinese travelers are taking more last-minute trips as economy struggles

Chinese travelers are taking more last-minute trips as they become more cautious with spending amid a lackluster economic recovery.

There is a “real crisis of consumer confidence” in China, Anthony Caputano, president and CEO of Marriott International said at the Bank of America Gaming and Lodging Conference last Thursday.

More Chinese consumers are booking hotels as late as three days in advance, which he said was the lowest level ever seen and much shorter than the nearly 20-day booking window for consumers in the rest of the world.

Travelers are planning trips closer to departure as they try to “take advantage of last-minute deals,” economists at Oxford Economics told CNBC, noting a shift in consumer preferences where “modern travelers prefer spontaneity in their travel plans.”

The shorter booking metric — which usually points to consumers’ increased uncertainty and caution with spending — makes it challenging for businesses to predict and prepare for demand, especially given China’s slow recovery, according to Patrick Body at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.

Chinese consumers have become more frugal on everything, from groceries to travel, as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with a protracted property crisis and high unemployment.

“While people still want to go on holiday, sentiment regarding incomes and consumption remains low,” according to economists at Oxford Economics.

Indeed, China has been known as a market with consistently short booking windows, according to a report by the World Travel & Tourism Council in 2021. In 2019, 70% of hotel bookings on travel agency Trip.com were made within three days of check-in. This ratio rose above 80% in the first two years of the pandemic, due to the high uncertainty of travel restrictions during the pandemic.

In July, Marriott International lowered its growth forecast for revenue per available room for this year, citing “current weak demand and pricing trends” in China.

That pricing pressure is reflected across the industry including at domestic travel booking agency Trip.com, which reported average rates for domestic hotels and flights continued to decline this year.

During the Labor Day holiday in May — one of the country’s longest breaks of the year — China saw more domestic trips and tourism spending than in 2019, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. But the average spending per traveler is still below 2019 levels.

The trend of people opting for short-haul trips to smaller cities or counties will continue, Oxford Economics said, which could boost these local economies.

Travel demand during the upcoming Golden Week in early October is expected to surpass the 2019 level, the economists said.

When asked about the outlook for the second half of the year, Trip.com CFO Xiaofan Wang said the company had “very limited visibility due to the short booking windows.” The platform expects booking activities to pick up after the National Day holiday, given a lower base in the same period last year, it said.