The S & P 500 punched through to a new record high on Friday, creating another milestone for a bull market that is now approaching its third birthday. The S & P 500 is up more than 70% since the current bull market began on Oct. 12, 2022, a period of 989 days, according to Bespoke Investment Group . And that’s not even long in the tooth, historically. For example, the bull market between 2009 and 2020 lasted 3,999 days and delivered a 400% return. The bull market that ended with the 2000 popping of the dot-com bubble was even more impressive, stretching back to shortly after the 1987 crash and lasting nearly 4,500 days, with a return of 582%. Even if the current run never reaches those dramatic lengths, what may set this bull market apart in the history books could be how close it came to ending early. At its low on April 8, the S & P 500 closed 19.8% below its previous record high. That was a razor thin margin call for the bull market, which technically would have stopped if the index closed down 20% on any day from its previous high. Of course, it’s not unusual for stocks to bounce back after a dramatic sell-off, but the strength of this rebound has been unusual. “It’s been a remarkable recovery,” Frank Gretz, technical analyst at Wellington Shields, told CNBC. “The credentials for a low were there. So I wasn’t surprised at the low, I’m surprised by the extent of the recovery.” .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 The current S & P 500 bull market began in October 2022 and is nearly 1,000 days old. And the rebound does not have to end here. Gretz said that the positive breadth of the most recent up move for stocks — the number of stocks participating — plus the fact that economically-sensitive companies such as Parker-Hannifin are doing well, is a sign the bull market can continue to climb. To be sure, the fundamental outlook for stocks is still cloudy, with uncertainty about tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy hanging over the market. UBS global wealth management’s chief investment office reiterated its neutral view on the stock market in a note late Thursday, but David Lefkowitz, the group’s head of U.S. equities, did say there’s cause for optimism. “The good news is that growth and inflation should start to improve later this year once the economy adjusts to the one-time impact of the tariffs. Falling inflation and accelerating economic growth tends to be a favorable backdrop for stocks. The icing on the cake could be a resumption of Fed rate cuts later this year,” Lefkowitz said in a note to clients.
